国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250515

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Strongly Bullish: PX, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][9][15][92] - Bullish: PTA, LLDPE, PP, Paper Pulp, Short Fibre, Bottle Chip [2][9][38][42][50] - Neutral: Rubber, Caustic Soda, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, Fuel Oil, PVC, Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][10][45][56][65][69][72][76][87][92][94] - Bullish with Oscillation: Asphalt [2][19] - Bearish in the Long Run: PVC, Caustic Soda [45][87] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analyses for various energy and chemical commodities, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and industry news [2]. - For most commodities, the short - term trends are influenced by factors like macro - economic sentiment, supply disruptions, and demand fluctuations, while long - term trends are determined by factors such as production capacity expansion and seasonal demand patterns [38][45][87]. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Unilateral strength, with Asian PX index rising. The tight balance between PX and PTA, along with high polyester industry operating rates, supports PX prices [7][9]. - PTA: The market is strong, with futures rising. PTA开工率 is slowing, and the high operating rate of the polyester industry contributes to the market's strength [7]. - MEG: Supply is contracting due to device maintenance, supporting prices [8][9]. Rubber - The market shows wide - range oscillations. Although the cost support is strong, the downstream buying sentiment is low, and the market has a strong bullish sentiment [10][14]. Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to run strongly, driven by factors such as the overall repair of macro - sentiment, the strength of the rubber and crude oil sectors, and the active short - term trading of butadiene [15][18]. Asphalt - It shows a strong oscillation due to the rebound of crude oil. The industry's capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory rate has slightly risen [19][37]. LLDPE - It is short - term strong and medium - term oscillatory. The short - term strength is supported by plastic product exports, but the long - term pressure comes from high supply and weak demand [38][39]. PP - The price has a small increase, but the trading volume has weakened. The market is influenced by macro - news and oil prices, but downstream demand is cautious [42][43]. Caustic Soda - It is short - term oscillatory and faces long - term pressure. Short - term downstream replenishment supports prices, but high production and weak demand in the second quarter may lead to profit compression [45][46]. Paper Pulp - It is expected to oscillate strongly. The futures price has rebounded, but the spot market lacks demand support, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a small rebound, but the downstream is still in a wait - and - see state, and the sustainability of production and sales needs to be followed up [55][56]. Methanol - It oscillates with support due to the improvement of macro - sentiment. The spot price has a small increase, and the port inventory has decreased [60][62]. Urea - It is expected to oscillate. The enterprise inventory has decreased significantly, and the futures market shows a multi - empty game pattern, with policy control limiting the price range [66][67]. Styrene - It is short - term oscillatory. The market is stronger than expected, driven by factors such as the release of downstream demand, port inventory issues, and device maintenance [69][70]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change, with stable supply and demand, and is expected to run stably in the short term [72][74]. LPG - The cost support is weakening due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts. The futures price shows fluctuations, and the industry's operating rates have changed slightly [76]. PVC - It is short - term strong and long - term pressured. The short - term strength is supported by macro - expectations and export demand, but the long - term high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change [87][88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil shows an oscillatory trend and may be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has rebounded significantly [92]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is short - term strong, and investors are advised to hold 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [94].