国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250515

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Positive: PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, styrene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, palm oil, soybean oil, corn, cotton (not strongly positive), peanut [69][77][88][93][97][106][124][163][172][179][183][203] - Neutral: copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, log, glass, methanol, urea, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), egg, hog [11][14][17][20][29][34][38][39][42][44][48][52][53][57][60][110][114][120][127][130][131][142][147][149][198][200] - Negative: gold, silver, tin, double - offset paper [6][9][23][168] Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant news. It suggests that different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. For example, the macro - economic situation and trade policies have a significant impact on commodities like copper, iron ore, and polymers; while supply - demand dynamics play a crucial role in agricultural products and energy commodities [11][42][93]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1 [6][9] - Silver: Oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1 [6][9] Base Metals - Copper: The rebound of the US dollar after testing lower levels restricted price increases, with a trend intensity of 0 [11] - Aluminum: Traded strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [14] - Alumina: Rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0 [14] - Zinc: Had short - term support, with a trend intensity of 0 [17] - Lead: Traded within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [20] - Tin: Traded in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of - 1 [23] - Nickel: Sentiment was disturbed by news, with limited fundamental changes, and a trend intensity of 0 [29] - Stainless Steel: Social inventory increased marginally, and the price was supported by cost expectations, with a trend intensity of 0 [29] Energy and Chemicals - LPG: With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, cost support weakened, with a trend intensity of 0 [130][131] - PVC: Strong in the short - term but facing pressure later, with a trend intensity of 0 [142] - Fuel Oil: Mainly traded in an oscillatory manner and may be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term, with a trend intensity of 0 [147] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Maintained its strength, with a trend intensity of 0 [147] - PTA: Long PX and short PTA strategy was recommended, with a trend intensity of 1 [64][69] - MEG: Continued to be strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [64][69] - Rubber: Traded in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0 [70] - Synthetic Rubber: Traded strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [75] - Asphalt: Rebounded with the rise of crude oil and traded strongly in an oscillatory manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [79] - LLDPE: Strong in the short - term and oscillatory in the medium - term, with a trend intensity of 1 [93] - PP: Prices increased slightly, but trading volume weakened, with a trend intensity of 1 [97] - Caustic Soda: Oscillated in the short - term and faced pressure later, with a trend intensity of 0 [100] - Paper Pulp: Traded strongly in an oscillatory manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [105] - Glass: The price of the original sheet was stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [110] - Methanol: Supported by the improvement of macro - sentiment, with a trend intensity of 0 [114] - Urea: Traded in an oscillatory manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [120] - Styrene: Oscillated in the short - term, with a trend intensity of 1 [124] - Soda Ash: There were few changes in the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [127] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Pressure was released periodically, with support at lower levels, with a trend intensity of 1 [171] - Soybean Oil: With intensive speculation on US biodiesel, it was prone to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, with a trend intensity of 1 [171] - Soybean Meal: Traded in an oscillatory manner due to the easing of trade frictions and the rise of US soybeans, with a trend intensity of 0 [180] - Soybean: The futures price oscillated, with a trend intensity of 0 [180] - Corn: Traded strongly in an oscillatory manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [183] - Sugar: Domestic production continued to increase, with a trend intensity of 0 [188] - Cotton: The futures price rebounded driven by market optimism, with a trend intensity of - 1 [192] - Egg: Traded in an oscillatory adjustment, with a trend intensity of 0 [198] - Hog: There was short - term gaming, with early trading of destocking followed by restocking, with a trend intensity of 0 [200] - Peanut: Traded strongly in an oscillatory manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [203] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Strong in the short - term, and it was recommended to hold 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads, with a trend intensity of 1 [149]