五矿期货农产品早报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile. US soybeans need additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production to break through upwards. The medium - term of oils has a downward pressure, but the US RVO rule to be released in two weeks may boost the sentiment of the oil sector. Domestic sugar prices may weaken in the future. Cotton shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the focus is on the marginal change of inventory. Eggs are recommended to be sold on rebounds in the medium - term. For pigs, a short - selling strategy is suggested after spot price rebounds [5][10][13][16][18][21] 3. Summary by Directory Soybeans/Meal - Important Information: Overnight US soybeans rose due to the increase in US soybean oil. The US House of Representatives passed a bill restricting biodiesel tax credits for non - North American raw materials, still awaiting Senate approval. As of last week, the US soybean planting progress reached 48%, and the Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress was close to 60%. According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The soybean oil mill operating rate was 53.42% yesterday, with a transaction volume of 91,800 tons [2][3] - Trading Strategy: The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton. Considering the low valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal, there is a certain rebound space. In the short - term, they are expected to be volatile [5] Oils - Important Information: In April, India's vegetable oil imports decreased to 891,558 tons, and the inventory dropped to 1.33 million tons. From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly, but the export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased significantly in April, but was supported by rising crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies [6][7] - Trading Strategy: In the medium - term, oils have a downward pressure, but in the short - term, they may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the upcoming US RVO rule and low near - month palm oil inventory [10] Sugar - Important Information: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. In the second half of April, in the central and southern regions of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production ratio, and sugar output all decreased significantly compared to the same period last year [12] - Trading Strategy: The supply shortage of raw sugar has been alleviated, and domestic sugar prices may weaken in the future as the import profit window may reopen [13] Cotton - Important Information: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose. The USDA monthly report showed that the global cotton production was expected to decrease by 710,000 tons, mainly from China and Australia. As of May 11, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [15] - Trading Strategy: The short - term cotton price may be boosted by the Sino - US negotiation progress, but the domestic cotton textile industry is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the focus is on inventory changes [16] Eggs - Spot Information: Most of the national egg prices rose yesterday, with the main producing area average price remaining at 3.25 yuan/jin. The supply increased slightly, and the downstream digestion was mostly stable. Today's egg prices may be mostly stable, with a risk of decline in some areas [17] - Trading Strategy: After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected. In the medium - term, the strategy of selling on rebounds remains unchanged [18] Pigs - Spot Information: Yesterday, the domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with some areas slightly decreasing. Today, the prices in the northern and central regions may decline locally, while the southern market may remain stable [20] - Trading Strategy: The short - term spot price fluctuates little, and a short - selling strategy is suggested after price rebounds [21]