成材：关注周度基本面变化，钢价震荡反弹-20250515

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the steel price may have a shock rebound, and it is advisable to try shorting at high prices after the rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near - term, and shorting should be attempted during the rebound [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 (Finished Products) - In early May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 220,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the steel inventory was 16.06 million tons, a 5.0% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.1% increase from the same period last month. This week, the average cost of billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex - factory price of 2,980 yuan/ton on May 14, the average profit of steel mills was 78 yuan/ton. On May 14, the ex - factory price of common square billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 30 yuan, reaching 2,980 yuan [1] - The finished products rebounded yesterday, with both varieties rising more than 1%. The A - share market rebounded, the financial market recovered, and the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the US was released, bringing macro - level benefits. However, the fundamental situation of finished products still requires cautious treatment. Currently, the molten iron output and steel mill operating rates are high, while the actual downstream demand is not strong, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand still exists [1] 原材料 (Raw Materials) - The view is that there may still be a rebound in the near - term, and shorting should be attempted during the rebound [1]