2025年一季度货币政策报告解读

Report Highlights Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy had a good start in Q1 2025, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and the external environment is complex with weakening global economic growth momentum. The economy's long - term positive trend remains unchanged [1][5]. - Monetary policy continues the moderately loose tone, with important adjustments in the intensity, rhythm of regulation, and the use of monetary policy tools. The MLF is gradually withdrawing from its policy - rate attribute [1][11]. - For the bond market, in the short term, short - end interest rates may decline due to loose liquidity, while long - term bonds may face pressure. In the medium term, the focus is on the rhythm of fiscal stimulus and overseas interest - rate cuts. Overall, the interest - rate center is expected to decline, but there may be phased adjustments [2][16]. Section Summaries Economic Situation - The Q1 2025 monetary policy report's judgment on the domestic and international economic situation follows the tone of the Politburo meeting. The domestic GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, with simultaneous improvements in production, supply, consumption, and investment. However, external risks include trade risks, global debt risks, and financial market volatility risks [5]. - Domestically, effective demand needs further boosting, the traditional real - estate sector faces adjustment pressure, and the employment market needs continuous consolidation [6]. Monetary Policy - The overall loose monetary - policy tone continues, with the policy - intensity description changing from "adjusting at an appropriate time" to "flexibly grasping". There is an increased emphasis on stabilizing growth. In the short term, structural tools and credit supply may be the main means [7]. - The central bank will use various monetary - policy tools to maintain liquidity, with more focus on quantitative tools. The "interest rate" is removed from the tool description, and "resuming treasury - bond trading at an appropriate time" is mentioned [8]. - The report aims to balance supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, and may guide the decline of deposit interest rates to reduce bank liabilities [10]. Incremental Information from Report Columns - MLF has gradually withdrawn from its policy - rate attribute since March 2025, and will mainly play a role in providing medium - term liquidity to the market in the future [11]. - The central bank pays attention to bond - market interest - rate risks, and may improve the system to suppress market risks and maintain interest - rate transmission efficiency [11]. - By comparing the government balance sheets of China, the US, and Japan, it shows that China's government debt is sustainable and there is still fiscal space [12]. - The inflation - control thinking has shifted, emphasizing the coordination of monetary policy with industrial and employment policies to improve the supply - demand structure and boost prices [13]. Market Outlook - For the bond market, short - end interest rates may decline due to loose liquidity in the short term, while long - term bonds may face pressure from short - term tariff negotiations and supply. If deposit interest rates are cut, it will be beneficial for the further decline of the interest - rate center. In the medium term, the focus is on the impact of fiscal stimulus and overseas interest - rate cuts [2][16].