农产品日报：市场情绪回暖，板块震荡反弹-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral to bearish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the sector has rebounded with fluctuations. For cotton, the macro - situation and new - season supply expectations affect prices; for sugar, the global supply - demand balance and Brazilian production are key factors; for pulp, macro policies and fundamental supply - demand conditions influence the price trend [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Market News and Important Data: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton (+0.86%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,429 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,484 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. As of May 11, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 28%, 4% slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average [1] - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded with fluctuations. The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations and the expected reduction in US cotton planting area supported cotton prices, but the acceleration of US cotton sowing and the expected increase in domestic cotton planting area also affected the market. Spinning mills were cautious in purchasing, and downstream demand was expected to weaken in the off - season [2] - Strategy: Neutral. Although the macro - sentiment has improved, the domestic market is in the consumption off - season, and the expected high yield in the new season may suppress the upside space of cotton prices [2] Sugar - Market News and Important Data: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5906 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Green Pool predicted a small surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 global sugar supply, with an expected 5.3% increase in production to 199.1 million tons and a 0.95% increase in consumption to 197 million tons [2][3] - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were strong. The lower - than - expected sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in late April pushed up the external market, but the expected high yield in the new Brazilian season limited the upside. The good domestic production and sales data supported domestic sugar prices, and the short - term import limitation and tightened policies also made domestic sugar prices more resistant [4] - Strategy: Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar, and attention should be paid to Brazilian weather and policy changes [6] Pulp - Market News and Important Data: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5378 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton (+1.93%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5360 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The prices of imported wood pulp in the spot market showed different trends [6] - Market Analysis: Pulp futures prices continued to rebound. The improvement in macro - sentiment had a short - term positive impact, but the fundamental support was weak. The reduction in foreign dollar quotes and high inventory levels put pressure on prices, and both European and domestic demand were weak, with the off - season approaching [7] - Strategy: Neutral to bearish. Although pulp prices have rebounded recently due to macro - factors, the off - season of the paper - making industry is coming, and demand is expected to weaken further. It is recommended to take short - selling positions on price increases [7]