FICC日报：MSC以及HPL涨价函发出，关注高运力下6月份涨价函实际落地情况-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - HPL and MSC have issued price increase notices for June. The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, attention should be paid to the actual price implementation in June. Recently, arbitrage operations are more recommended [1][3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US route. Some ship capacity has overflowed to the European route, but the supply - demand mismatch opportunity in the US route in the short - term may ease the pressure on the European route. The price of the US route has risen significantly, which is beneficial to the European route [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for May and June. For example, Gemini Cooperation's 22 - week shipping schedule (last week of May) is quoted at 932/1571; HPL's May shipping schedule is quoted at 1100/1700, and the June shipping schedule is quoted at 1900/3200 [1] - Price increase announcements: MSC and HPL have announced price increases for the Far East - Europe route in June. MSC's price is 1920/3200 (June 1 - 14), and HPL's price is 1900/3200 (after June 1) [1] 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy Factors - Geopolitical: On May 14 local time, the Israeli negotiation delegation participated in talks in Doha regarding a cease - fire, the release of detainees, and the end of the Gaza conflict. Hamas participated indirectly [2] - Policy: On May 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US adjusted its tariffs on China to 20% (fentanyl) + 10% (new benchmark), and the suspension of tariffs will end in 90 days after April 2. China also made corresponding adjustments [3][4] 3.3 Shipping Capacity Analysis - May capacity: The capacity in May has gradually increased. The weekly capacities in WEEK20/21/22 are 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively, with an average weekly capacity of about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024 [2] - June capacity: The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU. A total of 11 US - bound ships have been transferred to the European route, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - to - US East and West routes in June is 285,100 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Futures market: As of May 14, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 119,581.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 263,372.00 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices. For example, the closing price of the EC2602 contract is 1518.30 [5] - Spot market: On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates - Arbitrage: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract; go long on the 08 contract and short on the 06 contract [6]