装置检修集中，丁二烯原料价格强势

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for natural rubber (RU and NR) is neutral [3] - The investment rating for butadiene rubber (BR) is also neutral [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply of domestic natural rubber is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is not expected to have significant highlights. However, the improvement in tire factory production profits and the easing of Sino - US tariffs have alleviated the previous pessimistic demand expectations, resulting in less prominent supply - demand contradictions [3] - The price of butadiene rubber may continue to be strong in the short term. The short - term supply of butadiene is tight, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has increased. Although the production profit of butadiene rubber has deteriorated, the downstream tire demand expectation has improved, and the upstream raw material price is firm [4][5] Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - RU主力合约 closed at 15,235 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR主力合约 closed at 13,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton. The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 12,650 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton [1] Tire Industry Situation - Most tire enterprises are operating stably, with capacity utilization at a normal level. Some enterprises' operations are not as good as before. Enterprises have introduced certain price - concession policies this month, but the sales rhythm is still slow, and overall sales have not increased significantly. Flexible production control may become the norm to relieve inventory growth [1] Upstream Device News - Dalian Hengli's 140,000 - ton/year butadiene plant stopped for maintenance on May 14, lasting about 30 days [1] Related Product Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On May 14, 2025, RU basis was - 85 yuan/ton (+10), the spread between RU主力 and mixed rubber was 315 yuan/ton (+90), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,222 yuan/ton (+225.71), NR basis was 61.00 yuan/ton (- 42.00); full - latex was 15,150 yuan/ton (+250), mixed rubber was 14,920 yuan/ton (+150), 3L spot was 16,200 yuan/ton (+150). STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+20), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 1,050 yuan/ton (+100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,020 yuan/ton (- 250) [2] - Raw Materials: Thai smoked sheet was 72.09 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), Thai latex was 61.25 Thai baht/kg (+1.00), Thai cup lump was 54.05 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 7.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.40) [2] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.88% (+18.19%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.21% (+24.50) [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,355,527 tons (+613), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 618,693 tons (+4,506), the RU futures inventory was 200,500 tons (- 270), and the NR futures inventory was 74,692 tons (+3,527) [2] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On May 14, 2025, BR basis was 220 yuan/ton (+425), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 11,100 yuan/ton (+800), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,700 yuan/ton (+400), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 12,650 yuan/ton (+550), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton (+500), the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 238 yuan/ton (+450) [3] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.74% (+2.86%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,470 tons (- 430), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,650 tons (- 1,000) [3]