新能源及有色金属日报：宏观情绪好转，工业硅期货减仓上涨-20250515

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after continuous decline, due to improved macro - sentiment, previous short - position funds left the market for profit, leading to a reduction in positions and an upward movement in the futures market. Fundamentally, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, with the approaching of the wet season in the southwest, supply is expected to increase, and cost support has weakened. Consumption is weak, and there is a possibility of further production reduction, so the overall fundamentals are weak [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures price fluctuated widely on the day, and the spot market price remained stable with light trading. In May, production continued to decline on both the supply and demand sides. The actual production reduction situation remains to be observed, and the overall consumption has weakened [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On May 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded. The main contract 2506 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, a change of 225 yuan/ton (2.72%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 146,525 lots at the close, and on May 15, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,531 lots, a change of 37 lots from the previous day. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Xinjiang, and Sichuan continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon remained stable. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 yuan/ton. After the tariff issue was alleviated, it was beneficial to the export of organic silicon end - products, and organic silicon consumption might improve [2]. - Strategy - For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises are advised to sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On May 14, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures maintained wide - range fluctuations, opening at 38540 yuan/ton and closing at 38420 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.43% from the previous trading day. The main contract position reached 44,692 lots (52,252 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 236,082 lots. - The spot price of polysilicon was weakly stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), dense material was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), cauliflower material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg), granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg (unchanged), N - type material was 37.00 - 42.00 yuan/kg (- 1.00 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg (- 0.50 yuan/kg). - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.70 (a month - on - month change of - 1.90%), silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW (a month - on - month change of - 12.08%), weekly polysilicon production was 21,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.46%), and silicon wafer production was 12.35GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.07%). - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - On the supply side, production reduction continued in May, with a slight month - on - month decline of about 0.2 million tons in polysilicon production. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafer enterprises decreased by about 3GW month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 20 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 40 lots (120 tons) [5][7][8]. - Strategy - For single - side trading, due to the short - term joint production reduction of production enterprises and the small number of warehouse receipts, but the weakening of consumption, the market will fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [9].