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商品期货早班车-20250515
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-05-15 05:41
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. In the short term, it is recommended to avoid due to the easing of the trade war, and consider waiting for opportunities to build long positions in the medium and long term. For silver, it is suggested to sell high on rebounds or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For aluminum, the weakening dollar supports metal prices, and after the Sino - US tariff agreement, the export performance of aluminum downstream products may improve. The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - For alumina, the macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the previous production cuts and maintenance of alumina enterprises have led to continuous inventory reduction, which supports the short - term price increase. However, the decline in imported ore costs and the release of new production capacity may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to wait and see or sell high [3]. - For industrial silicon, although the price rose due to the warming of the commodity market sentiment, the fundamentals remain unchanged. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward drive is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term price may fluctuate or rebound slightly, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long term. It is recommended to hold short positions or take short - term profits [3]. - For polysilicon, it is advisable to take profits on long positions and pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price rises to around 40,000 [3]. - For steel products, it is recommended to hold short positions in rebar, hold short positions in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and try the reverse spread of hot - rolled coils in July/October. For iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract. For coking coal, it is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - For agricultural products, for soybeans, the US soybeans may rebound in the short term, and the medium - term drive lies in the yield game; domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and may follow the international market to fluctuate in the medium term. For corn, the spot is weak, and the futures price may fluctuate and consolidate. For sugar, it may rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future. For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see. For palm oil, it may rebound in the short term and be in a weak seasonal stage in the medium term. For eggs and hogs, the futures prices are expected to fluctuate. For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, for LLDPE and PP, they may fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted at high prices in the long term. For PVC, it is recommended to close short positions. For rubber, it is recommended to short in the medium term. For glass, it is recommended to gradually close short positions. For crude oil, it is advisable to short at high prices. For styrene, the short - term trend is strong, and the monthly spread is in a positive spread. For soda ash, it is recommended to gradually close short positions [8][9][10]. - For shipping, the short - term European container shipping (EC) may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high in the 06 contract and try the 8 - 10 positive spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Pre - market Commodity Futures - Gold Market - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices weakened, and the international gold price denominated in London gold fell below $3,200 per ounce [1]. - News: Trump publicly stated that he does not plan to fire Powell but still pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US government officials will not seek dollar depreciation in trade agreements [1]. - Economic data: China's social financing scale increment in the first four months totaled 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. US inflation cooled in April, with CPI at 2.3% year - on - year and core CPI at 2.8% year - on - year [1]. - Inventory data: Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow out. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5 tons to 1,221 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. The London gold inventory in April increased slightly. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12 tons to 919 tons, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 38 tons [1]. - Operation suggestions: Avoid in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long in the medium and long term; sell silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. 2.2 Basic Metals - Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 1.48% to 20,240 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 125 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $2,520.5 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The starting rate of aluminum products increased slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract increased by 3.77% to 2,945 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 4 yuan per ton. On May 14, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $370.04 per ton, up about $11 per ton from the 12th [3]. - Fundamentals: The production capacity decreased due to phased maintenance and production cuts of alumina plants. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: The price may rise in the short term, but the rebound height may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see or sell high [3]. - Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The 2506 contract closed at 8,490 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: In the supply side, the resumption of production in Sichuan was obvious in the short term, and Yunnan had production cuts. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries was limited [3]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan per ton, up 3.0% from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was less than expected. The social inventory decreased slightly last week, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Short at high prices in the long term, hold short positions or take short - term profits [3]. - Polysilicon - Market performance: The PS2506 contract closed at 38,420 yuan per ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. The warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 40 [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply in May is expected to be flat or slightly lower than in April, and the downstream silicon wafer factories have limited procurement [3]. - Operation suggestions: Take profits on long positions and pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price rises to around 40,000 [3]. 2.3 Black Industry - Rebar - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar fluctuated strongly and closed at 3,119 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton from the previous day [4]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials increased, and the production increased. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced [4]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions. Hold short positions in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar and try the reverse spread of hot - rolled coils in July/October [4][5]. - Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated strongly and closed at 737.5 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand were neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [5]. - Trading strategy: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. Wait and see for arbitrage [5]. - Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal fluctuated strongly and closed at 888.5 yuan per ton, up 9.5 yuan per ton from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and the futures was at a premium [5]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [5]. 2.4 Agricultural Products Market - Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans were strong in the short term, trading on the expectation of US biodiesel policy [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and neutral in the long - term for US new - crop soybeans. The demand was seasonally weak [6]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans may rebound in the short term, and the medium - term drive lies in the yield game. Domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and may follow the international market to fluctuate in the medium term [6]. - Corn - Market performance: The corn 2507 contract rebounded slightly, and the deep - processing corn prices rose and fell [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand was tightening. The trade - end shipments increased in the short term, and the new wheat listing supplemented part of the demand [6]. - Trading strategy: The spot is weak, and the futures price may fluctuate and consolidate [6]. - Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,888 yuan per ton, down 0.29%. The basis was 8 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after tax was 37 yuan per ton [6]. - Fundamentals: Raw sugar rebounded under the influence of macro and crude oil. In May, China entered the pure sales period, and the inventory was low year - on - year [6]. - Trading strategy: Rebound in the short term and bearish in the future [6]. - Cotton - Market performance: Overnight, the US cotton price continued to fall, and the international oil price weakened. The Indian cotton import in February decreased by 16.7% month - on - month and increased by 394.2% year - on - year. The Vietnamese cotton import in April increased by 11.1% month - on - month and 28.0% year - on - year. The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated upward [7]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see and adopt the range - trading strategy [7]. - Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was in the seasonal growth period, and the export demand improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Rebound in the short term and be in a weak seasonal stage in the medium term [7]. - Eggs - Market performance: The 2506 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The cost supported the price [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Hogs - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs rebounded, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply will continue to increase, and the pig price may decline resistantly [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Apples - Market performance: The main contract closed at 7,723 yuan per ton, down 0.27%. The apple prices in Shandong were stable [7]. - Fundamentals: Extreme weather affected the apple setting in the main producing areas, and the low inventory and expected production reduction supported the price. The consumption problem needs attention [7]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see [7]. 2.5 Energy and Chemical Industry - LLDPE - Market performance: The main contract continued to rise. The spot price in North China was 7,360 yuan per ton, and the basis weakened [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased, and the import was expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand was in the off - season for agricultural films [9]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9]. - PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 5,028 yuan, up 2.3% [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply was large, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand was expected to improve [9]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions [9]. - Rubber - Market performance: The RU2509 contract increased by 1.6% and closed at 15,235 yuan per ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The market sentiment was bullish, and the supply was expected to increase [9]. - Trading strategy: Short in the medium term and pay attention to the pressure level around 15,500 - 15,600 yuan [9]. - Glass - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,037 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply was large, and the inventory accumulated. The demand was expected to improve [9]. - Trading strategy: The price may fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions [9]. - PP - Market performance: The main contract continued to rebound slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,250 yuan per ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the demand was expected to improve after the Sino - US tariff relaxation [9]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9]. - Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price fell due to unexpected inventory accumulation and the possible Iran - US agreement [10]. - Fundamentals: The demand expectation increased slightly, and the supply pressure was large [10]. - Trading strategy: Short at high prices, and the short - term trading range is Brent $60 - 70 per barrel [10]. - Styrene - Market performance: The main contract rose sharply. The spot price in East China was 8,050 yuan per ton, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene inventory was normal, and the styrene inventory was low. The downstream demand was expected to improve [10]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and adopt the positive - spread strategy for monthly spreads [10]. - Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,338 yuan, up 1.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass increased [10]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and consider selling out - of - the - money call options at 1,650 [10]. 2.6 Shipping - European Container Shipping - Market performance: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract hit the daily limit, and the shipowners announced a price increase for the European line on June 1 [11]. - Fundamentals: The demand on the US line recovered, but the European line demand was still moderate. The supply on the US line will be adjusted, and large ships on the European line are still being launched [11]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term. Be cautious when chasing high in the 06 contract and try the 8 - 10 positive spread [11].