2025年4月金融数据点评：4月社融增速明显回升

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the growth rate of social financing increased significantly, with new loans of 28 billion yuan and social financing of 1.16 trillion yuan. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, and the M1 growth rate was stable. The new loans in April were less than the same period last year, but the total for the first four months was close to the previous year. Looking ahead to 2025, new loans are expected to increase year - on - year, government bond net financing will expand significantly, and social financing will increase significantly year - on - year. The social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an expected year - end growth rate of around 8.4%. [1][2] - It is recommended to adopt a full - defense strategy in the bond market. The negative economic cycle of the past two years has ended, and the economy is stabilizing internally. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on China, the bond market needs to guard against the possibility of economic data exceeding expectations. After the significant tariff reduction, the economic outlook has improved significantly, and the central bank may need to push up the long - term bond yields moderately. In 2025, pure bond investment should be cautious, and attention should be paid to stock and convertible bond opportunities. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content New Loans - In April 2025, new loans were 28 billion yuan, less than the same period last year, but the total for the first four months was close to the previous year. The second - quarter April and May are usually small months for credit issuance, and June is a large month. The credit data in the first half of 2025 was affected by the replacement of implicit debts. The low stock mortgage interest rate and the stable stock market alleviated the pressure of early mortgage repayment, and the demand for mortgage loans improved. In April, individual loans decreased by 52.16 billion yuan, including a decrease of 40.19 billion yuan in short - term individual loans and 12.31 billion yuan in medium - and long - term individual loans. Corporate short - term loans decreased by 48 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 25 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 83.41 billion yuan. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on China and the low year - on - year base, new loans are likely to increase year - on - year in the next few months. [1][2][7] M1 and M2 - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and non - bank payment institution customer reserves on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of April 2025, the new - caliber M1 balance reached 109.1 trillion yuan, and the old - caliber M1 was 66.3 trillion yuan. In recent years, the year - on - year growth rates of the new and old M1 calibers have been similar, but the new - caliber M1 growth rate is more stable. In April, the new - caliber M1 growth rate was 1.5%, close to the previous month; the old - caliber M1 growth rate was - 0.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Since Q4 2024, the growth rates of both new and old M1 calibers have rebounded significantly, reflecting the gradual increase in economic activity. The M2 growth rate in April was 8.0%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month, which was related to the large decline in M2 in April 2024 when manual interest compensation was standardized and the large increase in M2 derivation due to the significant year - on - year increase in social financing in April this year. [2][4] Social Financing - In April 2025, the social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The increase mainly came from government bond net financing and undiscounted items. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy in April was 8.84 billion yuan, 24.65 billion yuan less than the same period last year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 27.94 billion yuan; corporate bond net financing increased by 23.4 billion yuan; government bond net financing was 97.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.07 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the social financing growth rate was 8.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the end of the previous month and 0.7 percentage points from the beginning of the year. [1][2][10]