申银万国期货首席点评：中美经贸关系竞合窗口期

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current Sino - US game has entered a new stage of "talking while fighting", and the 90 - day policy window period is both an opportunity and a test. Domestic policies need to balance between stabilizing growth and preventing risks, and the uncertainty of the external environment tests market resilience [2]. - For the stock index futures, it is advisable to take a bullish stance, and for stock index options, a wide - straddle buying strategy can be used to capture the trend after the direction is determined. For treasury bonds, short - term fluctuations may increase as market risk appetite rises [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Chief Comment - China announced the suspension of export control measures on 28 US entities, and the US revoked 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, with 24% of the remaining 34% tariffs suspended for 90 days, marking a compromise in the two - year fentanyl tariff dispute, but the game continues [1]. - Domestic policy combinations are precisely targeted. The central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut released trillions of liquidity, and the 15 new policies on science and technology finance resonate. The policy focus is shifting from total stimulus to structural optimization [1]. - The Trump administration shows new trends in its "art of the deal", with a combination strategy of trade and fiscal policies [1]. 3.2. Key Varieties - Crude Oil: SC night session dropped 0.59%. US April CPI data showed a 2.3% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. US crude inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the space for the US to sanction Venezuela and Iran due to low oil prices [3]. - Shipping: EC opened high and closed high, with the 06 and 08 contracts hitting the daily limit. The TCI index showed increases in the US West and East routes. The Sino - US tariff trade friction has eased, which may bring forward the peak season for the US routes and potentially drive up the European routes [4]. - Gold: With the positive news of tariff relaxation realized, gold and silver prices declined. The Fed maintains a wait - and - see attitude, and the market focuses on trade negotiations and new economic data. Gold is in a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [6]. 3.3. Daily Main News - International News: The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days. It also adjusted the tariff on small Chinese parcels [7]. - Domestic News: By the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased 8.7% year - on - year, and M2 balance increased 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month [8]. - Industry News: OPEC+ oil - producing countries' production in April only increased by 25,000 barrels per day, far below the target. OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth [9]. 3.4. Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.10%, the European STOXX50 fell 0.32%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.91%, and the US dollar index rose 0.08%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.13%, London gold spot fell 2.24%, and London silver fell 2.10%. Other commodities also showed different price changes [11]. 3.5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - Financial: - Stock Index: The US three major indexes showed mixed performance. The stock index rose, and the non - banking financial sector led the rise. With positive policies and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the stock market is expected to be bullish in the short - term. The valuation of major Chinese indexes is low, and long - term investment is cost - effective [12]. - Treasury Bond: Treasury bonds generally fell. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond dropped to 1.672%. With the progress of Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and the price of treasury bond futures declined [13]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: SC night session decline was affected by US CPI data and inventory changes [15]. - Methanol: Methanol night session rose. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, and the overall methanol inventory in coastal areas was at a low level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short - term [16]. - Rubber: Rubber rebounded. The climate in domestic producing areas is good, and the supply is expected to increase. The total inventory in Qingdao is rising. The tariff policy is unfavorable to the raw material end, and the long - term trend is expected to be weak [17]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins rebounded strongly. The consumption of polyolefins has peaked, but due to cost fluctuations and the rebound of crude oil, they are expected to slow down the rebound speed after the short - term rebound [18]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures stopped falling and rebounded, and soda ash futures opened low and closed high. The inventory of both is under pressure, and the destocking process takes time. The market is positive about the Sino - US financial ministers' talks [19][20]. - Metals: - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices declined as the positive news of tariff relaxation was realized. The Fed maintains a wait - and - see attitude, and the market focuses on trade negotiations and economic data [21]. - Copper: The copper price may fluctuate widely. The processing fee of concentrates is low, and domestic downstream demand is stable. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and other factors [22]. - Zinc: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the previous decline has digested some of the production growth expectations [23]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum main contract rose. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive for the non - ferrous metals market. The demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak in the short - term, but the price is expected to be strong [24]. - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, and the price is rising. The nickel market has both positive and negative factors, and the price is expected to be strong [26]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium prices are weak, and salt factories are reducing production. The supply in May is expected to decline, but the inventory is still accumulating. The price is pessimistic without large - scale production cuts [27]. - Black Metals: - Coking Coal/Coke: The black series is repaired by macro - positive factors. The cost of coking coal is declining, and the supply is increasing. The second - round price increase of coke failed, and a price cut is expected. The market is bearish on the rebound [28]. - Iron Ore: The supply of iron ore is expected to change, but the demand is supported by the increase in iron water production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term [29]. - Steel: The supply of steel is increasing slightly, and the inventory is decreasing. The export of steel billets is strong, but the demand for building materials and plates is expected to decline seasonally. The market is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [30]. - Agricultural Products: - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were strong at night. The USDA report was positive for soybeans, and the US biodiesel policy was positive for soybean oil. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil production and inventory, which is bearish for palm oil [32]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Rapeseed meal was strong at night, and soybean meal opened high and closed low. The US soybean planting weather is good, and the USDA report is positive. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase [33]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The corn market is in a short - term shock. The supply in July is expected to be tight, but high - price raw materials suppress the profit of deep - processing enterprises. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [34]. - Cotton: Cotton maintained a strong trend. The new cotton planting in Xinjiang is basically completed, and the emergence rate is good. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term trend is strong [35]. - Shipping Index: - Container Shipping European Routes: EC opened high and closed high, with the 06 and 08 contracts hitting the daily limit. The Sino - US tariff trade friction has eased, which may bring forward the peak season for the US routes and potentially drive up the European routes. The 06 contract is expected to have limited fluctuations, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [36].