光大期货能化商品日报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, oil prices declined slightly. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week. Saudi Arabia's production increased in April, but the decline in production from some OPEC countries offset the growth. Russia is considering extending gasoline export restrictions. Oil prices are under pressure and oscillating after a continuous rebound [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures rose. In May, the volume of low - sulfur arbitrage cargo shipped from the European market to Singapore is expected to decrease, while the inventory in Singapore is increasing due to more low - sulfur fuel oil blending components from the Middle East and South America. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strongly supported by the increase in summer power generation demand. The absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [3]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, asphalt futures rose. This week, the total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt increased, the social inventory decreased, and the total operating rate of asphalt plants increased. Supply is expected to continue to increase, and market demand will increase slightly in the north but be affected by rainfall in the south. The absolute price of BU may remain stable, but the upside space is limited [3]. - Polyester: On Wednesday, polyester futures rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation. Crude oil prices strengthened, PTA device maintenance continued, and downstream inventory and operation rates were high. PTA futures may oscillate strongly, and the supply of ethylene glycol tightened in the short term, leading to a stronger price [4]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, rubber futures rose. As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased slightly. The shortage of butadiene and the strengthening of crude oil prices led to an obvious rebound in butadiene rubber prices. The performance of natural rubber was relatively weak, and the Sino - US joint statement had limited impact on rubber prices [6]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, methanol prices showed certain fluctuations. The domestic methanol supply is at a high level due to good producer profits, while the Iranian device load has declined, and the arrival volume is lower than expected. The MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and the operation of traditional downstream industries is relatively stable. Methanol prices will recover, but there is still pressure on the upside [6]. - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices showed certain trends. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure is being relieved. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made important progress, and there may be an intention to rush for exports in the short term, so polyolefin prices will recover [8]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Wednesday, PVC market prices increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation has made significant progress, the upside space for PVC is expected to be limited [8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: WTI June contract closed down $0.52 to $63.15 per barrel, a decline of 0.82%. Brent July contract closed down $0.54 to $66.09 per barrel, a decline of 0.81%. SC2506 closed at 484.6 yuan per barrel, down 2.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.59%. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ending May 9 [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the SHFE, FU2507, rose 1.12% to 3057 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2507, rose 3.08% to 3647 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur arbitrage cargo volume from Europe to Singapore is expected to decrease in May, but the inventory in Singapore is increasing [3]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE, BU2506, rose 1.24% to 3521 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.50%, up 1.12% from last week; the social inventory rate was 35.32%, down 0.41% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 35.73%, up 3.62% from last week [3]. - Polyester: TA509 closed at 4874 yuan per ton, up 2.61%; EG2509 closed at 4506 yuan per ton, up 3.61%. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation [4]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, rose 240 yuan per ton to 15235 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber, NR, rose 180 yuan per ton to 13035 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 175 yuan per ton to 12380 yuan per ton [6]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2505 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2137.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between 258 - 262 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between 337 - 342 US dollars per ton [6]. - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 7200 - 7350 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 87.11 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 1096.2 yuan per ton [8]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Wednesday, the market price of PVC in East China, North China, and South China increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on May 14 and May 13, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the crude oil production of all OPEC + member countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared with March. Although eight OPEC + oil - producing countries vowed to start relaxing production cuts, the actual increase in supply was less than expected [11]. - The EIA data showed that as of the week ending May 9, the inventory of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 28, 2022 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47][50] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][65][66] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow and PP production profit [69]