银河期货每日早盘观察-20250515

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Soybean/Meal: The US soybean market is driven by macro - positives and improved crushing prospects, but South American supply pressure remains. The domestic market may face pressure due to increased soybean arrivals and potential higher crushing volumes [2][4]. - Sugar: Brazil is approaching the crushing peak, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate. Domestic sugar prices are stronger than raw sugar due to high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, and are also expected to move sideways [12]. - Oils and Fats: US biodiesel expectations are volatile, affecting the oil market. In the short term, Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and inventory. In China, soybean crushing will rise, and soybean oil inventory will accumulate [21]. - Corn/Corn Starch: US corn is weakening, while the domestic corn market is strong due to limited supply, but the upside for spot prices is limited, and futures have strong support [32]. - Hogs: The hog market is oscillating. Supply has improved, but the futures may not fall much further [38]. - Peanuts: Spot peanut trading is light, but the 10 - contract peanuts may be short - term strong due to expected increased planting area and potential weather speculation [41]. - Eggs: Egg supply is sufficient, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to close short positions and wait [49]. - Apples: Cold - storage apple inventory is low, and new - season weather has affected some areas. Apple prices are expected to be slightly stronger [54][56]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen due to positive macro - news from Sino - US trade talks [62]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Data: CBOT soybean index rose 0.21% to 1069.5 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index fell 0.34% to $296.6/short ton [2] - Key Information: USDA export sales and NOPA monthly crushing reports are expected. EU rapeseed production is recovering, and domestic soybean and meal inventories have changed [2] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: oscillate; Arbitrage: wait; Options: sell wide - straddle strategy [5] Sugar - Market Data: ICE US sugar fell 0.14 (0.77%) to 18.08 cents/lb [6] - Key Information: Yunnan sugar mills' crushing progress, Brazilian sugar production data, and StoneX's prediction [7][8][11] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: oscillate and trade in the range; Arbitrage: wait; Options: sell wide - straddle or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [13][14][15] Oils and Fats - Market Data: CBOT soybean oil changed 1.58% to 52.2 cents/lb, and BMD palm oil changed 0.82% to 3957 ringgit/ton [18] - Key Information: Indonesia's palm oil export tax adjustment, India's vegetable oil imports, and US biodiesel policy news [19] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: consider long - position in palm oil for a rebound or short after a rebound; Arbitrage: partially close and hold YP 09; Options: wait [24][25][26] Corn/Corn Starch - Market Data: CBOT corn rose 0.5% to 445.5 cents/bu [28] - Key Information: US corn inventory, domestic processing data, and port prices [29][31] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: go long on 07 corn; Arbitrage: trade the spread between corn and starch; Options: sell covered calls for those with spot [33][34] Hogs - Market Data: Hog prices are stable in different regions, and piglet and sow prices have changed [36] - Key Information: Agricultural product price index and pork wholesale price [36] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: bearish; Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread; Options: sell wide - straddle strategy [38] Peanuts - Market Data: Peanut prices in different regions, oil factory purchase prices, and product prices [39] - Key Information: Peanut and peanut oil inventory changes [40] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: go long on 10 peanuts; Arbitrage: wait; Options: wait [42][43][44] Eggs - Market Data: Egg prices in main production and sales areas are stable or slightly changed [46] - Key Information: Laying - hen inventory, chicken culling, egg sales, and inventory data [47] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: close short positions and wait; Arbitrage: long 08 and short 09; Options: wait [50] Apples - Market Data: Apple cold - storage inventory, export and import data, and spot prices [51][52] - Key Information: Apple profit situation [53] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: go long on AP10; Arbitrage: wait; Options: wait [57][58] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Data: ICE US cotton fell 0.86 (1.29%) to 65.55 cents/lb [59] - Key Information: US cotton planting progress, soil humidity, and port inventory [60] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: expect a slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: wait; Options: wait [62][63]