光大期货工业硅&多晶硅日报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - On May 14, polysilicon showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 38,420 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.43%, and the position decreasing by 7,560 lots to 44,692 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 39,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material dropped to 39,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 1,080 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong and volatile trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 8,490 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.72%, and the position decreasing by 15,774 lots to 14.7 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot remained stable at 9,552 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 8,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of 35 yuan/ton turned into a discount of 80 yuan/ton. There were rumors in the market that six major crystalline silicon companies would jointly acquire production capacity and cut production, but the implementation still needed to be confirmed. The industry will hold another meeting on self - restricted production and price support for polysilicon, and the release rhythm of planned new production capacity may be postponed. As the delivery period approaches, the ratio of virtual to real positions of polysilicon warehouse receipts is too high, giving short - term space to bulls. The fundamentals of industrial silicon have not improved, and the futures price has not been driven by crystalline silicon and continues to be weak. Track the meeting results and the movement of warehouse receipts, and be vigilant against abnormal risks before the delivery month [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main and near - month contracts increased by 115 yuan/ton to 8,380 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the prices of some regions such as Kunming and Sichuan for 553 silicon decreased, while most other prices remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed from 35 yuan/ton to a discount of 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 37 to 66,531, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 10,820 tons to 336,690 tons. The industrial silicon factory inventory decreased by 3,800 tons to 250,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 3,800 tons to 417,000 tons [4] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main and near - month contracts increased by 150 yuan/ton to 38,420 yuan/ton. The prices of N - type polysilicon material, dense material, and cauliflower material all decreased. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 1,000 yuan/ton to 39,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 1,080 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 40, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 60,000 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.3 tons to 28.72 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.3 tons to 28.7 tons [4] - Organic Silicon: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 12,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4] - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4] 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices: The report includes charts on various prices such as different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5] - Downstream Product Prices: Charts cover the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21] - Cost and Profit: Charts present the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [27] 3.3 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. They all have rich experience in tracking the new energy industry chain and providing policy interpretations [37]