光大期货软商品日报-20250515

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both cotton and sugar are "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.1% to 65.55 cents per pound, while CF509 rose 0.9% to 13,445 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 2,675 lots to 572,500 lots. In the international market, there are still macro - level disturbances, and the U.S. cotton futures price has slightly declined. The USDA May report shows a narrowing of the global cotton supply - demand surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, the cotton price has risen due to better - than - expected Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations and the rising domestic index. In the short term, the market is driven by the macro - level, and the upward drive from fundamentals is limited, so it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - For sugar, the broker StoneX expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to be 32.3 million tons and 26.1 million tons in the 2024/25 season. The domestic sugar futures price has rebounded due to the recovery of the raw sugar price and firm domestic spot prices. Future attention should be paid to sales progress and imports [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: The international market has macro - level disturbances, and the USDA May report shows a change in the supply - demand pattern. The domestic market is affected by tariff negotiations and the domestic index. The short - term view is oscillation [1] - Sugar: India's production forecast is released, and the domestic sugar price has rebounded. Future attention is on sales and imports [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 contract spread is - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,039 yuan, down 15 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,429 yuan per ton, up 97 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,484 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan [2] - Sugar: The 7 - 9 contract spread is 73 yuan, down 6 yuan; the main contract basis is 264 yuan, down 43 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,160 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,170 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3. Market Information - Cotton: On May 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipts increased by 121 to 11,486, with 477 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are provided, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data are also given [3] - Sugar: On May 14, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou increased, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,130 to 31,574, with 1,377 valid forecasts [3][4] 4. Chart Analysis - Cotton: Charts show the closing price, basis, 7 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index of the cotton main contract [6][9][10][11] - Sugar: Charts show the closing price, basis, 7 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of the sugar main contract [13][14][16] 5. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, with their professional backgrounds, research focuses, and honors introduced [18][19][20]