20250515申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250515

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations. Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Nickel prices may show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continued growth in home appliance production, and potential for new energy to boost automotive copper demand. The narrowing decline in real estate data is also a factor. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to US tariff negotiations, dollar and RMB exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,607 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 14.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 185,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 4,075 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to US tariff negotiations, dollar and RMB exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 215 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,765 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.27 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 167,050 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 900 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract closed up 0.67%. Sino - US tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply and demand of alumina are expected to be loose, but some manufacturers currently have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures prices to fall again, a further decline in bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. Recently, the operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for the aluminum cable sector, have declined slightly, and the market expects a decrease in downstream orders. In the short term, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, but due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation results, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,529 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 399,300 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract closed up 0.92%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia is still tight, leading to a continuous increase in nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may cause local nickel product prices to rise. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel salt enterprises have production reduction expectations, so nickel salt prices may rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. Fundamentally, there are both bullish and bearish factors in the nickel market, and nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,300 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,871 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 195.59 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 198,432 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 84 tons [2]. Lead - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 180 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,997 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 6.64 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,900 tons [2]. Tin - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,170 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 32,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 73.89 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,775 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 15 tons [2].