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社融增速保持环比回升势头,M2增速在低基数上显著提升
BOCOM International·2025-05-15 07:04

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the covered companies in the banking sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - The growth rate of social financing (社融) has shown a month-on-month increase, with M2 growth significantly rising from a low base [1][4]. - In April 2025, new RMB loans decreased by 4,500 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the timing of credit issuance and debt replacement [1]. - The increase in social financing in April 2025 was mainly driven by government bond issuance, which reached 9,729 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10,666 million yuan [2][1]. - The M1 growth rate remained stable at 1.5%, while M2 growth rose to 8.0%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points [4][7]. - New RMB deposits decreased by 4,400 million yuan in April 2025, with a significant year-on-year reduction of 34,800 million yuan [2][1]. Summary by Sections New RMB Loans - In April 2025, new RMB loans totaled 2,800 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4,500 million yuan [2]. - Short-term loans and bill financing saw a decrease of 478 million yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 1,165 million yuan [2]. Social Financing - New social financing in April 2025 amounted to 11,591 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12,249 million yuan [2]. - The increase in social financing was primarily attributed to government bond issuance, which accelerated during this period [1]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in April 2025 decreased by 4,400 million yuan, with a year-on-year reduction of 34,800 million yuan [2]. - Both household and corporate deposits saw significant year-on-year declines, with household deposits down by 13,900 million yuan and corporate deposits down by 13,297 million yuan [2].