Workflow
4月金融数据点评:贸易冲击阶段性影响需求,M1将继续修复
广发证券·2025-05-15 06:59

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that under the impact of tariffs, credit demand is weak, but fiscal stimulus is driving an increase in social financing growth, which rose by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7% month-on-month [5]. - M2 growth increased significantly by 1.0 percentage points to 8.0%, while M1 growth slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, primarily due to trade impacts on the real economy [5]. - The government has significantly increased fiscal efforts, with net financing of government bonds reaching 1 trillion CNY in April, a year-on-year increase of 1.07 trillion CNY [5]. - Weak credit demand from households is noted, attributed to higher consumer loan rates and trade impacts on housing sentiment [5]. - Corporate credit demand is also weak, with bill financing providing primary support, influenced by trade impacts and increased short-term borrowing by enterprises [5]. - Non-bank deposits have seen a significant increase, supported by ample central bank re-lending and market confidence [5]. - Investment recommendations focus on targeting expected returns anchored on ROE, with key recommendations for China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Qingdao Bank [5]. Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Credit demand is weak due to tariff impacts, with social financing growth improving due to fiscal stimulus [5][13]. Government Sector - Significant fiscal efforts are observed, with net government bond financing and increased fiscal deposits [5][14]. Household Sector - Weak household credit demand is noted, with expectations for stabilization as trade tensions ease [5][15]. Corporate Sector - Corporate credit demand is weak, with bill financing at historical highs, influenced by trade impacts [5][16]. Non-Bank Sector - Non-bank deposits have increased significantly, reflecting market confidence and central bank support [5][17].