EIA周度报告点评-20250515

Report Summary - Report Title: EIA Weekly Data Report - Report Date: May 15, 2025 - Report Author: Xiao Huo (Z0016296) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Report's Core View - The EIA report for this week is relatively bearish, with the four - week smoothed weekly export data at a 4 - month low and 6 - month second - lowest, indicating a gradual weakening of global crude oil demand. Although falling oil prices have boosted US domestic gasoline demand before the driving peak season, overall demand remains mediocre, and the total inventory of the crude oil chain has increased more than the crude oil inventory, meaning refined products are still accumulating inventory [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data Overview - As of May 9, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.454 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.528 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.56 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.13 million barrels [2] 2. Data Changes from May 2 to May 9 - US commercial crude oil inventory increased from 438.376 million barrels to 441.83 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 24.961 million barrels to 23.892 million barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased from 399.122 million barrels to 398.62 million barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased from 225.728 million barrels to 224.706 million barrels; US distillate inventory decreased from 106.708 million barrels to 103.553 million barrels; US crude oil chain total inventory increased from 1.612398 billion barrels to 1.617795 billion barrels; US crude oil production increased from 13.367 million barrels per day to 13.387 million barrels per day; US crude oil net imports increased from 2.05 million barrels per day to 2.472 million barrels per day; US crude oil processing volume increased from 16.071 million barrels per day to 16.401 million barrels per day; US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 19.756 million barrels per day to 19.8355 million barrels per day; US gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 8.92275 million barrels per day to 9.00575 million barrels per day; US distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 3.708 million barrels per day to 3.68775 million barrels per day; US jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 1.85725 million barrels per day to 1.755 million barrels per day [3] 3. Analysis of Crude Oil Inventory Increase - The unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to the decline in export volume. The four - week smoothed export volume dropped to the lowest level since early January, suggesting a weakening of overseas demand. The weekly refinery utilization rate has increased for the fourth consecutive week, rising by 1.2% to 90.2%, breaking through the 90% mark, indicating that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be gradually ending. US crude oil production has recently declined, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The Dallas Fed's energy survey report for the first quarter of this year shows that the average new well operating cost of US shale oil companies is WTI $65 per barrel [4] 4. Analysis of Product Oil Situation - In terms of refined oil, the apparent demand for gasoline has been continuously strengthening, perhaps boosted by the recent falling prices, resulting in an unexpected decline in gasoline inventory. Diesel inventory has also decreased significantly [6] 5. Impact on Oil Prices - After the release of this week's data, oil prices fluctuated downward. This morning, Iran's inner circle made its first concession on nuclear weapons, causing oil prices to fall further [8]