光明乳业（600597）：坚持“新鲜战略”，期待经营反弹

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [9][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a revenue rebound as it continues to implement its "Fresh Strategy" and expand its low-temperature milk offerings nationwide. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 24.278 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.3% [3][4]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic consumption, which should positively impact revenue in the future. The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight revenue decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, but a recovery in net profit is expected [3][4]. - The report highlights that the liquid milk segment continues to face challenges, while the livestock segment has a significant negative impact on overall performance [4][5]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected at RMB 24.278 billion, with a net profit of RMB 722 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.4% [3][13]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows revenue of RMB 6.37 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.4 billion, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 18.2% [3][6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to decline by 0.4 percentage points to 19.2%, with a slight recovery in the first quarter of 2025 [6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - By product, the revenue changes for 2025 are projected as follows: liquid milk -9.5%, other dairy products +5.9%, and livestock -41.7% [4][5]. - By region, the revenue for 2024 is expected to be RMB 6.73 billion from Shanghai, RMB 9.99 billion from other regions, and RMB 7.44 billion from overseas, with Shanghai showing a strong performance [4][5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 0.45, RMB 0.48, and RMB 0.51 respectively, reflecting an increase of 25% for 2025 [7][13]. - The target price for the stock is set at RMB 9.00, based on a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times for 2025 [7][9].