房地产行业月报：政策宽松持续，“银四”分化中修复

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the real estate sector, including New World Development, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property, among others, with target prices indicating potential upside from current market prices [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a continued adjustment, with a significant decline in sales volume and prices, but government policies are increasingly supportive, aiming to stabilize the market [2][12]. - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are outperforming private companies in sales, with SOEs holding a market share of 73.1% in the top 50 developers [11][12]. - The report anticipates that as purchasing barriers are lowered and mortgage affordability improves, demand in the secondary market will continue to recover, while the primary real estate market remains stable [2][12]. Summary by Sections Stock Market Performance - The stock prices of mainland Chinese developers have generally outperformed the Chinese corporate index over the past month, with the industry’s net asset value discount expanding to 87.3% [3][6]. Developer Sales Performance - In April 2025, the total sales of the top 100 developers decreased by 10.4% month-on-month to 308.9 billion RMB, with a notable decline in sales area and average selling price [10][11]. - Among the 22 tracked major listed developers, sales fell by 19.5% month-on-month, primarily due to a 16.7% decrease in sales area and a 2.2% drop in average selling price [11][12]. Market Conditions - The new housing transaction volume in 10 cities fell by 24.99% month-on-month in April 2025, while supply increased by 20.8%, leading to an inventory digestion period of approximately 18.04 months [19][20]. - The report notes that the price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities showed a year-on-year decline of 5.0% in March 2025, indicating a slight improvement in the rate of decline compared to previous months [29][30]. Policy Review and Company Updates - The central government continues to implement policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to support troubled developers and promote high-quality housing supply [34][36]. - In April 2025, over 37 cities introduced real estate easing policies, focusing on increasing housing fund support and providing financial incentives for home purchases [36][37].