Guohai Securities·2025-05-15 07:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][20]. Core Views - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by a focus on user experience and content ecosystem development, along with government subsidy policies and steady growth in supermarket categories [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit significantly surpassed Bloomberg consensus estimates, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin and operating profit margin [6][10]. - The company is focusing on long-term investment returns from new businesses like food delivery, with a current daily order volume approaching 20 million [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [6][10]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [9][17]. - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downwards to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [9][17]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [9][17].