苯乙烯日报：原油价格下跌，关注成本端压力-20250515

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The styrene market shows a “near - strong, far - weak” pattern. The supply has increased slightly, and the terminal demand has been released after the trade war ended. The profit of the industrial chain has tilted towards the styrene segment. The futures price has risen due to short - term factors such as macro - demand side benefits and early maintenance of large factories. The follow - up needs to focus on the implementation of new terminal orders after the tariff reduction [4]. - The pure benzene supply - demand pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand remains unchanged, and the fundamentals are weak. The start - up rate of pure benzene devices has increased, the downstream demand has shown a slight recovery but the weekly supply - demand gap is still expanding, the implicit inventory is high, and the demand side is under continuous pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Price: On May 14th, the styrene main contract closed up 4.51% at 7,746 yuan/ton, with a basis of 244 yuan/ton (+129 yuan/ton). The Brent crude oil main contract closed at $63.7 per barrel (+$1.7 per barrel), the WTI crude oil main contract closed at $66.6 per barrel (+$1.6 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,205 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton) [2]. - Inventory: The styrene sample factory inventory was 23.2 tons (+2.2 tons), a month - on - month increase of 10.3%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 6.85 tons (-1.67 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%. The styrene port inventory continued to decline, and the spot liquidity tightened [2]. - Supply: The styrene maintenance devices gradually resumed production, with an expected increase in supply. Affected by the restart of some devices, the weekly styrene output increased by 2.43% month - on - month to 33.07 tons (+0.78 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 72.2% (+1.7%) [2]. - Demand: The start - up rates of downstream 3S varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 47.4% (-1.35%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 69.0% (+1.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 57.4% (-1.3%). Overall, the downstream demand weakened [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - Price: From May 13th to 14th, the styrene futures main contract rose 2.60%, the spot price rose 2.20%, and the basis rose 112.17%. The pure benzene prices in East China, South Korea FOB, the United States FOB, and China CFR all increased to varying degrees. The Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also rose, while the naphtha price remained unchanged [6]. - Inventory: From May 2nd to 9th, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 19.6% to 6.9 tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory increased by 10.3% to 23.2 tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory remained unchanged at 12.0 tons [7]. - Start - up Rate: From May 2nd to 9th, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and phenol among pure benzene downstream increased, while those of caprolactam and aniline decreased. Among styrene downstream, the ABS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.86%, while the EPS and PS capacity utilization rates decreased [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the measures for imposing additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States starting from 12:01 on May 14th [9]. - The API crude oil inventory in the United States for the week ending May 9th was 4.287 million barrels, compared with an expected -1.96 million barrels and a previous value of -4.494 million barrels [9]. - Trump called on Powell again to cut interest rates [9]. - Trump said he might relax or even completely lift sanctions on Syria [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price of pure benzene, the price of styrene, the styrene - pure benzene price difference, the import and domestic production costs of pure benzene for SM, the inventory of styrene ports and factories, the inventory of pure benzene ports, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of downstream products such as ABS, PS, EPS, caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [10][17][18]