中原期货晨会纪要-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily market tracking data of commodity indices, including the performance of macro - indicators,主力合约 of various commodities, and provides morning meeting viewpoints on major varieties, as well as macro - economic news [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Macro - indicators: On May 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.212% to 42051.06, the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.719% to 19146.81, the S&P 500 increased by 0.102% to 5892.58, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.304% to 23640.65, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.071% to 1.41, the US dollar index decreased by 0.120% to 100.96, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.21 [2]. - 主力合约: COMEX gold decreased by 2.268% to 3180.70, COMEX silver decreased by 2.115% to 32.39, LME copper decreased by 0.078% to 9592.00, LME aluminum increased by 1.305% to 2522.50, LME zinc increased by 2.089% to 2761.50, LME lead increased by 0.176% to 1992.50, LME tin increased by 0.516% to 32890.00, LME nickel increased by 0.413% to 15800.00, ICE11 -号 sugar decreased by 0.550% to 18.08, ICE2 -号 cotton decreased by 1.295% to 65.55, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.093% to 1076.00, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.545% to 292.00, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.065% to 52.20, CBOT corn increased by 0.508% to 444.75, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 1.163% to 62.89, and ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.126% to 65.85 [2]. - Domestic commodities: For metals, gold decreased by 1.712% to 748.68, silver decreased by 1.342% to 8085.00, copper decreased by 0.367% to 78650.00, zinc increased by 0.396% to 22800.00, aluminum increased by 0.074% to 20255.00, tin decreased by 0.109% to 265480.00, lead increased by 0.531% to 17025.00, nickel increased by 0.248% to 125540.00, iron ore increased by 0.068% to 737.50, alumina increased by 1.154% to 2979.00, rebar decreased by 0.256% to 3119.00, stainless steel decreased by 0.115% to 13065.00, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.337% to 3256.00 [2]. - Domestic chemical products: Coke decreased by 0.270% to 1478.00, natural rubber decreased by 0.328% to 15185.00, 20 -号 rubber decreased by 0.384% to 12985.00, plastic increased by 0.177% to 7352.00, polypropylene PP decreased by 0.097% to 7186.00, (PTA) decreased by 0.082% to 4870.00, asphalt decreased by 0.142% to 3516.00, methanol decreased by 0.507% to 2353.00, ethylene glycol decreased by 0.289% to 4493.00, styrene increased by 1.214% to 7840.00, glass decreased by 0.860% to 1037.00, crude oil decreased by 0.411% to 484.60, fuel oil decreased by 0.033% to 3056.00, soda ash decreased by 0.595% to 1337.00, pulp remained unchanged at 5378.00, caustic soda decreased by 0.237% to 2524.00, PX decreased by 0.058% to 6876.00, and LPG decreased by 0.735% to 4324.00 [4]. - Domestic agricultural products: Yellow soybean 1 increased by 0.216% to 4183.00, yellow soybean 2 decreased by 0.560% to 3552.00, soybean meal decreased by 0.549% to 2898.00, rapeseed meal decreased by 0.399% to 2499.00, soybean oil decreased by 0.202% to 7898.00, rapeseed oil decreased by 0.064% to 9432.00, palm oil decreased by 0.098% to 8176.00, white sugar decreased by 0.305% to 5888.00, yellow corn decreased by 0.382% to 2347.00, corn starch decreased by 0.259% to 2695.00, No.1 cotton increased by 0.074% to 13455.00, and cotton yarn decreased by 0.152% to 19745.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - China's counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs remain in effect. The US imposed two rounds of tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and China took counter - measures in a timely manner [7]. - To implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, China has suspended the inclusion of 28 US entities in the export control list and 17 US entities in the unreliable entity list for 90 days starting from May 14. The US has adjusted its tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% of reciprocal tariffs, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. It has also adjusted the tax on small - value parcels [7]. - In April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than the previous month [8]. - China's first comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 has taken effect. Starting from May 15, the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% reserve requirement ratio), and the reserve requirement ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies has been lowered by 5 percentage points, expected to inject about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - Seven departments, including the central bank and the financial regulatory authority, have jointly issued a document proposing 15 policy measures to promote the development of science and technology finance in seven aspects, providing full - life - cycle and full - chain financial services for scientific and technological innovation [8]. - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that existing policies will be promoted to take effect earlier, and incremental policies will be studied and reserved according to the situation [9]. - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2083 at 16:30, down 71 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.2090 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 35 basis points to 7.1956, the highest since April 3 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is relatively stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There are few topics for speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Oils and fats: About 15% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week. Argentina has raised its forecast for the 2024/25 soybean harvest. The external oil market lacks strong support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Sugar: On May 14, the sugar futures contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The supply in Brazil has decreased significantly, while domestic demand is strong. However, the opening of the import profit window may bring pressure. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, with resistance at 5950 yuan/ton and support at 5850 yuan/ton [11]. - Corn: On May 14, the corn futures contract closed at 2356 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The supply in the northern ports is decreasing, but wheat substitution suppresses demand. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish view, with support at 2340 yuan/ton [11]. - Pigs: The national pig price is stable with a slight decline. The supply exceeds demand, and the consumption is weak. The futures contract is oscillating at the bottom of the range. It is recommended to operate intraday [11]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price is stable. Food factories' demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but the trade volume is decreasing. The egg price has limited room for further increase, and the medium - term capacity pressure remains [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: The supply in Shandong is narrowing, but non - aluminum industries' demand is cautious. The 2509 contract has rebounded [13]. - Urea: The domestic urea price is stable, with high daily production. The inventory has decreased significantly. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is decreasing seasonally, while agricultural demand is increasing. The market may continue to oscillate at a high level [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: The prices of copper and aluminum have been boosted by the progress of China - US negotiations. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous gap positions [13]. - Alumina: Some alumina plants have maintenance and production - reduction plans, and new production capacity is ramping up. The cost has decreased, and the 2509 contract has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000 yuan/ton [14]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The spot market has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The steel prices are expected to continue to rebound, with resistance at 3150 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [14]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are stable. The steel mills' pressure on prices is obvious. The two products may rebound slightly, with resistance at 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6000 yuan/ton for silicon manganese [14]. - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal market is weak, and the coke price is under pressure. The two products are stable in the short term but remain relatively weak [14]. - Lithium carbonate: On May 14, the futures contract closed at 65200 yuan/ton, up 3%. The supply has decreased, but the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see the effectiveness of the breakthrough, with resistance at 68000 yuan/ton and support at 63500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Options: On May 14, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points. The trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan. The futures indices of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 all rose with increased positions and volume. The PCR of option trading volume decreased, while the PCR of option positions increased, and the implied volatility increased. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after the volatility decreases [17].