2025年中期宏观展望：贸易战背景下2025年美国宏观形势分析

Economic Outlook - The US economy is in an upward cycle for 2025, but tariffs will severely impact the global commodity recovery cycle[1] - Key positive factors include a rate cut cycle and labor market supply-side reforms, but trade war uncertainties will significantly weaken demand recovery logic[1] - The most important macro theme this year has shifted from the rate cut cycle to the intensity of the trade war, affecting macro conditions and asset trends throughout the year[1] Tax Cuts and Trade War - The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is projected to reduce US government tax revenue by $7.8 trillion over the next decade, averaging about $770 billion annually[2] - Current US imports are approximately $3.2 trillion; raising the average tariff rate to 20% could generate about $640 billion in annual revenue, partially offsetting TCJA losses[2] - The Federal Reserve estimates that tariffs implemented on April 2 will raise the average tariff rate to 25%, but the final rate may settle between 15%-20% after a 90-day exemption period[2] Inflation and Inventory Dynamics - US wholesalers currently have 1.3 months of inventory to buffer against trade disruptions, which may sustain until the end of Q2 2025[3] - If tariffs remain unresolved by the end of Q2, supply shortages could lead to rising inflation, potentially resulting in stagflation and recession, impacting financial markets and political stability[3] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a GDP contraction of -0.3%, primarily due to a surge in imports, which negatively impacted GDP growth by 4.8 percentage points[19] Consumer Behavior and Government Spending - Despite concerns over tariffs, domestic demand remains resilient, with private domestic final purchases growing at a rate of 3% in Q1 2025[21] - Federal spending decreased by 5.1% in Q1 2025, with defense spending down by 8%, contributing to a GDP drag of 0.3 percentage points[21] - The combination of high tariffs and reduced federal spending creates a tight fiscal environment, impacting overall economic conditions[21]