Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-15 08:53Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the easing of tariff and geopolitical risks, precious metals in the Shanghai market dropped significantly. The short - term outlook for gold is a major negative, with the possibility of the Fed's preventive interest rate cut decreasing and the rate - cut time likely to be postponed to after September. Although the medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectation is positive for gold and there is significant buying support from continuous inflows into gold ETFs, gold may remain under pressure in the short term. Silver has some support from its industrial and commodity attributes but may still be weak due to the linkage effect with gold. It is recommended to wait and see, and specific price ranges for different contracts are provided [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 739.82 yuan/gram, down 21.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8008 yuan/kilogram, down 187 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 211,188 hands, down 3,590 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 342,882 hands, up 62,114 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 106,847 hands, down 1,171 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122,646 hands, down 13,699 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,238 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 914,782 kilograms, down 4,681 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 737 yuan/gram, down 21.51 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8026 yuan/kilogram, down 138 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 2.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 18 yuan/kilogram, up 49 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 936.51 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings were 13,971.47 tons, down 28.28 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 162,497 contracts, down 821 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 49,252 contracts, down 691 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 31.99%, up 1.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 25.76%, up 1.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was - 1.13, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 26.62% (previous value 26.61%, change - 1.13) [2]. Industry News - China suspended 28 US entities from the export control list for 90 days and 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list for 90 days. In April, global physical gold ETFs had a strong inflow of about $11 billion, and the total asset management scale of global gold ETFs reached $379 billion at the end of April. Asia had a large inflow of about $7.3 billion, with China being the main driver. Trump visited Qatar and signed multiple cooperation agreements, expected to bring at least $1.2 trillion in economic exchanges. The first - round cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine will start in Turkey, and the easing of the situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold. The Fed's attitude towards inflation and economic data was also mentioned [2].