Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-15 08:50Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach for polysilicon investment [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable. Supply has decreased significantly as over half of the industry's enterprises are conducting device maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia. Demand is weak, with downstream enterprises, particularly crystal - pulling companies, being hesitant to purchase and expecting future price drops. Inventory pressure is high, mainly concentrated in manufacturers, and inventory digestion is slow. Technically, the price has retreated from highs, with non - declining trading volume and high - level trading, and it has not broken through the 20 - day moving average, waiting for news for a second breakthrough [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon is 37,920 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 37,985 lots, down 6,707 lots. The 06 - 07 month contract spread is 860 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 29,510 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.34 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars/kg. The basis of polysilicon is 2,080 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon is 8,410 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the spot price is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory is 596,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.13 US dollars/kg, down 0.14 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, up 11,443,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 units, up 24,038,530 units; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 units, down 2,122,260 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/unit, up 0.01 US dollars/unit. The photovoltaic industry's comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.91, down 0.62 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - As of May 14, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower - type, N - type dense - type, N - type re - feeding, and N - type granular silicon are stable. The central bank reported that the social financing increment from January to April was 16.34 trillion yuan, and new loans were 10.06 trillion yuan, with M2 increasing by 8% year - on - year in April. Market news indicates that the top six polysilicon manufacturers in the photovoltaic industry plan to acquire the remaining production capacity, and a leading manufacturer has proposed production cuts to support prices and set a target range [3].