Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The policy - driven demand expectations for lithium carbonate are in a multi - empty game with high inventory levels and cost collapses. Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the futures price of lithium carbonate will be constrained by the oversupply situation and the decline in Australian ore costs on the upside, while being supported by short - term export rush expectations and market sentiment on the downside. If the demand boost fails to meet expectations, the price may face downward pressure again, and overall, it will continue the low - level oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On May 14, the main futures contract of lithium carbonate closed at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13% from the previous day, with an intraday fluctuation range of 63,020 - 65,200 yuan/ton, showing an oscillatory upward trend. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 2,980 yuan/ton to 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.44%. The futures price increase was significantly higher than that of the spot price [2]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 5.87% to 277,000 lots, indicating some funds left the market, while the trading volume expanded by 73.95% to 378,000 lots, suggesting intensified market competition [2]. - In the spot market, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 66,200 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates also remained stable, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 61% month - on - month, as upstream production was still constrained by profit margins [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Analysis and Future Trend Judgment - Supply Side: The prices of spodumene (740 yuan/ton) and lepidolite (800 yuan/ton) have remained stable for many days, but the CIF price of Australian ore has dropped to $700/ton, weakening cost support. Upstream lithium salt plants are maintaining high prices due to losses, and the weekly output has increased by 28% month - on - month, so the supply pressure persists [3]. - Demand Side: The prices of power ternary materials (116,375 yuan/ton) and lithium iron phosphate (31,445 yuan/ton) increased slightly. The purchasing willingness of downstream cathode material enterprises is low, and demand relies on long - term contracts. The exemption of tariffs on Chinese energy - storage cells in the US may stimulate the expectation of a rush to export, potentially driving up the production of energy - storage cells in May - June and improving short - term marginal demand [3]. - Inventory Side: The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 464 tons, but the inventory of smelters increased to 55,000 tons. Downstream replenishment remains cautious, and the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 3.13% from May 13 to May 14, while the basis decreased by 66.44%. The open interest decreased by 5.87%, and the trading volume increased by 73.95% [5]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates were stable. The prices of power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, by 0.02% and 0.16% respectively [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.3 percentage points from May 9 to May 2, a decrease of 2.09% [5]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On May 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,959 yuan/ton, up 197 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the overall demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts. Upstream lithium salt plants have a strong willingness to maintain high prices due to cost losses. Only some transactions occur between traders and downstream enterprises. Considering the high inventory and weakening cost support, the price of lithium carbonate will continue the low - level oscillatory pattern [6]. - Downstream Consumption: According to the Passenger Car Association, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 3.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 53.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.99 million units, a year - on - year increase of 42% [7].
碳酸锂日报：基差修复凸显市场分歧，碳酸锂低位震荡格局延续-20250515
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-05-15 08:53