瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent domestic urea production decreased due to some plant shutdowns, but production is likely to increase in the future as three shutdown plants will resume production and no new shutdowns are planned next week [2]. - Agricultural demand is gradually rising, and port - collection demand will increase due to export news. Industrial demand is mainly for essential purchases. Northeast compound fertilizer production is ending, and enterprises are digesting inventory and entering maintenance, but compound fertilizer shipment and capacity utilization are expected to improve as summer replenishment time shortens [2]. - This week, urea enterprise inventory decreased significantly. Affected by export news, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, some domestic downstream industries increased procurement, and some goods flowed to ports, helping factory inventory decline. The UR2509 contract is recommended to be traded in the 1840 - 1940 range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1892 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was 93 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the main contract position was 245,094 lots, down 5,374 lots; the top 20 net positions were 510 lots, up 3,683 lots; and the exchange warehouse receipts were 7,352 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui were unchanged, Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1950 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu remained at 1950 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 58 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports were unchanged at 350 and 357.5 dollars/ton respectively [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory was 13.3 million tons, up 1.5 million tons; enterprise inventory was 81.72 million tons, down 24.84 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 87.35%, up 0.58 percentage points; daily production was 201,400 tons, up 1,300 tons. Urea exports were 0, unchanged. The monthly output was 6,087,080 tons, up 610,930 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 37.9%, down 2.7 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 75.24%, up 0.08 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer was 304 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea was - 190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 6.8383 million tons, up 1.5092 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 37,370 tons, up 4,880 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 14, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 81.72 million tons, a 23.31% week - on - week decrease. As of May 15, the port inventory was 16.3 million tons, a 22.56% week - on - week increase. As of May 15, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3947 million tons, a 1.09% week - on - week decrease; the weekly average daily output was 199,200 tons, a 0.22 - million - ton decrease from last week; the capacity utilization rate was 86.40%, a 0.95 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Due to some domestic urea plants shutting down, daily production decreased. With no planned shutdowns next week and three shutdown plants resuming production, production is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is rising, and port - collection demand will increase due to export news. Industrial demand is mainly for essential purchases. Northeast compound fertilizer production is ending, but the compound fertilizer shipment and capacity utilization are expected to improve as summer replenishment time shortens. This week, the inventory of urea enterprises decreased significantly, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased due to export news [2]. 3.7 Suggested Attention Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].