美国4月CPI数据点评：通胀季节性回落，后续关税影响或较为温和

Inflation Data - The US April CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year it rose by 2.3%, slightly below the expected 2.4%[4] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations, and year-on-year it remained stable at 2.8%[4] Inflation Trends - Energy prices were the main driver behind the inflation decline, with a 0.7% month-on-month increase, primarily from natural gas and electricity, offsetting gasoline price drops[5] - Housing prices contributed over half of the April inflation, rising by 0.3% month-on-month[5] Seasonal Patterns - The period from March to July is traditionally a low inflation season, with April's month-on-month increase in goods prices at 0.1%, higher than March[6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be moderate due to a 90-day pause in the US-China tariff war, allowing for a recovery in shipping[6] Market Outlook - The outlook for US equities is cautiously optimistic in the short term, with a neutral long-term perspective, as the delay in tariff policies allows companies to stock up[7] - The probability of a recession in the US has decreased, although inflation levels may see a slight increase due to foundational tariffs[7]