4月金融数据解读：贸易冲击初显

Financial Data Overview - In April, new social financing (社融) in China was 1.16 trillion yuan, below the expected 1.26 trillion yuan[2] - New RMB loans amounted to 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan[2] - M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 7.5%[2] Economic Implications - The overall financial data for April was weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends, indicating a return to a government financing-dominated structure with weak private sector performance[5] - The contribution to the year-on-year increase in social financing was primarily from government sources (87.4%), while credit from the private sector showed a negative contribution of -19.0%[6] - April's new loans hit a historical low for the same period in recent years, with a significant decline in both household and corporate loans[9] Sector Analysis - Government bond financing was robust, with an increase of 976.2 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the overall financing growth[17] - Non-financial corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting heightened uncertainty due to the US-China trade conflict[13] - Household loans shrank by 521.6 billion yuan, indicating a strong desire to reduce debt among consumers[14] Monetary Trends - Total deposits fell by 440 billion yuan, while M2 growth accelerated due to significant inflows from non-bank deposits[25] - The M2-M1 growth rate differential widened to 6.5%, indicating a slowdown in actual money circulation[25] - The overall financing environment remains pressured, with expectations of stabilization in May following the US-China trade discussions[6]