铜价冲高回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Copper: Today, copper prices continued to decline, with the main contract price falling below the 78,000 yuan mark in the afternoon. The recent upward trend in copper prices was largely due to the easing of Sino-US relations, while today's decline was affected by the sharp drop in gold prices and the increase in electrolytic copper social inventory. With the industry's low inventory pattern and the warming of the internal and external macro atmosphere, copper prices are expected to maintain a strong operation. Attention can be paid to the long-short game at the 78,000 yuan level [4]. - Aluminum: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly above 20,200 yuan and weakened slightly in the afternoon. The recent upward trend in aluminum prices was largely due to the easing of Sino-US relations. With the low inventory pattern, the warming macro atmosphere promoted the rebound of aluminum prices. In the short term, the futures price broke through the 20,000 yuan mark, and short - sellers had a strong willingness to close positions. The futures price is expected to maintain a strong operation. If it falls, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices showed a downward trend, with an obvious plunge before the noon closing and stabilized with increased positions in the afternoon. From a macro perspective, the internal and external macro - benefits did not significantly boost nickel prices, which largely indicated that the industrial fundamentals of nickel prices were suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices. Overall, the strong upstream mine end provided support for the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerted pressure on the futures price. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support at the 123,000 yuan level [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On May 15th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 135,700 tons, a cumulative increase of 10,800 tons compared to the 12th. Codelco will cooperate with Rio Tinto to build a copper "mining area" around the Nuevo Cobre project in the Atacama region of northern Chile. Codelco holds about 43% of the shares, and Rio Tinto holds about 58%. Ivanhoe's Makoko mining area in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a total copper content of 9.37 million tons, 89% higher than the estimated 5 million tons in November 2023. The inferred resource volume of the Makoko mine is 27.7 million tons with a copper grade of 2.79%, and the speculative resource volume is 4.937 billion tons with a copper grade of 1.7%. Morgan Stanley expects the average copper price in the second half of 2025 to be $9,225 per ton [8][9]. - Aluminum: Morgan Stanley expects the average aluminum price in the second half of 2025 to be $2,325 per ton [9]. - Nickel: On May 15th, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the main premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,530 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +2,700 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,030 yuan/ton; for nickel beans, it was -900 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,430 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - Nickel: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][45].