附近期交易节奏思考：海外镍矿企业季度运营分析

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for nickel is "Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current range - bound oscillation pattern of nickel may continue in the short - term. Band trading opportunities can be focused on. When the factors of "geopolitical risk + concentrated supply" are present in the nickel industry chain, the trading focus is recommended to be on seizing opportunities to go long at low prices, while closely tracking the trend of ore prices [5][45][46] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Event Overview - The first - quarter operation reports of most overseas nickel enterprises have been gradually disclosed recently. By analyzing the nickel ore production in the latest financial reports, different evolution patterns of laterite nickel ore and sulfide nickel ore are deduced, and some thoughts on recent trading rhythms are provided [11] 2. Event Analysis 2.1 Indonesia Laterite Nickel Ore Supply Tight, Focus on Quota Release Rhythm - Harita Nickel: In Q1 2025, the sales volume of limonite reached 3.71 million wet tons and saprolite reached 1.78 million wet tons, with a total year - on - year increase of 52%. The joint - venture project KPS expanded production to 4 furnaces in Q1 2025, and 6 HPAL production lines were in stable over - production [12] - PT Vale: In Q1 2025, nickel production in the Indonesian production area decreased by 24% year - on - year to 14,200 metal tons, reflecting the tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore and the rising premium [12] - Antam: In Q1 2025, the quarterly nickel ore production reached a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 221% to 4.63 million wet tons and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 76% [14] - Nickel Industries: In Q1 2025, nickel ore production increased by 82% year - on - year but decreased by 21.5% quarter - on - quarter to 5.649 million wet tons. The company is confident of getting the RKAB increase approved in the second half of the year [15] - WedaBay Nickel: In Q1 2025, the nickel ore production increased by 3.2% year - on - year to 9.169 million wet tons. The RKAB quota obtained in 2025 has decreased significantly compared with last year, with the risk of production falling short of expectations [15] - Merdeka (MBMA): In Q1 2025, the production of saprolite increased by 190% year - on - year to 1.3 million wet tons, and limonite increased by 54% to 1.8 million wet tons. The cash cost of saprolite decreased year - on - year, while that of limonite increased [17] 2.2 Sulfide Nickel Ore Production Cutback Rhythm Slows - Russia: In Q1 2025, nickel production decreased by 1.1% year - on - year to 41,600 tons. The company expects the total refined nickel production in 2025 to be 204,000 - 211,000 tons, with a higher probability of being on the left side of the range [26] - Vale: The total nickel production reached 42,900 metal tons in Q1 2025, an increase of 4,400 metal tons year - on - year, with a 4% decrease in total cost [26] - Australia: After the shutdown of high - cost nickel ore projects in 2024, only two nickel ore projects are currently in operation, and the Nova project is expected to stop production at the end of 2026 due to grade depletion. The production of operating projects in Q1 2025 remained low [29] 3. Investment Advice - Laterite nickel ore: Since the beginning of 2025, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore has been tight. Some leading mining enterprises have good year - on - year growth, mainly due to the slow release of quotas last year. The core logic is that mines with new projects will get corresponding incremental quotas, while large mines cut quotas to support small mines. The approved RKAB quota is less than the previous news, and the supply may remain tight throughout the year [40] - Trading: The tight supply expectation of Indonesian ore may last throughout the year. The current range - bound oscillation pattern may continue in the short - term. The short - side logic focuses on the loosening of ore supply, while the long - side logic emphasizes the tight ore supply and potential production cuts. It is recommended to focus on band trading opportunities and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices [45][46]