等待驱动，盘面窄幅波动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a state of oscillation under the game between long and short positions. In the short - term, the market is waiting for a driving force, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is in a bullish pattern. Attention should be paid to the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in the future [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and closed lower today. The Sino - US talks have boosted market risk appetite, and the inflation level in the US is lower than expected, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, which supports the upward movement of copper prices [1] - On the supply side, the pattern of tight supply remains. The mine end is expected to be tight, and the smelter's cost is high. Although the copper output has increased against the trend, the cost pressure is obvious. The large increase in US copper inventory has led to tight supply in other regions, and the domestic exchange's explicit inventory has been continuously depleted, but the depletion rate has narrowed [1] - On the demand side, downstream customers are resistant to high prices. The operating rate of cable enterprises in April reached 86.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The downstream demand is still resilient, but the demand in May may weaken marginally compared with April [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: It opened high, moved low, and fluctuated with a decline, closing at 77870. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 2421 to 127955 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 1562 to 117162 hands [3] - Spot: The spot premium in East China today was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 25 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9621 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 28.5 US dollars/ton [3] Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [1][5] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 60,500 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,650 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 167,000 short tons, an increase of 1,928 short tons from the previous period [8]