Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-15 09:40Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The overall zinc production will continue to increase due to rising zinc ore imports, rising zinc ore processing fees, a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, improved smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the resumption of some maintenance and shutdown capacities [3]. - The subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline as the import window is closed and the import loss is expanding [3]. - The demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually warming up. The recent decline in zinc prices has improved the downstream's bargain - hunting purchasing atmosphere, with high spot premiums and a significant decline in domestic inventories, entering the traditional destocking cycle, while overseas destocking continues [3]. - The terminal real estate market has marginally improved but still drags down demand, and attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions, attention should be paid to the MA10 support, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,765 dollars/ton, up 60 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 222,896 hands, down 3,156 hands [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 2,784 hands, down 736 hands; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,571 tons, up 971 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons (weekly), down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,050 tons (daily), down 900 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 310 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.27 dollars/ton, up 5.07 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,780 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons (monthly), up 18,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons (weekly), up 800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 17.13% (daily), up 0.01%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 17.14% (daily), up 0.02% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 11.75% (daily), up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 16.86% (daily), down 0.22% [3]. Industry News - At the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The stock of social financing scale was 424 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. In the first four months, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year - on - year; the RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 339.7 billion yuan year - on - year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that trade between China and the United States will increase significantly in the next 90 days. Enterprises will compete to increase inventory reserves, especially US importers may launch a new wave of buying, and China's exports will boom [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The overall zinc production will increase due to factors such as rising imports, processing fees, and sulfuric acid prices, as well as the resumption of some capacities [3]. - The refined zinc imports are expected to decline as the import window is closed and the loss is expanding [3]. - The downstream demand is warming up, with improved purchasing and falling inventories, but the real estate market still drags down demand [3]. - Technically, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3].