下游需求边际增加，盘面震荡偏多

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing slightly higher. The upstream factory mainly executed previous pending orders, with low trading activity and a slightly weaker market. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The daily production is fluctuating around 200,000 tons. Pay attention to the impact of new production capacity on supply. After the export is opened, it may cause the transfer of local supply liquidity. The agricultural fertilizer preparation is cautious. The compound fertilizer factory's inventory is decreasing, and the capacity utilization rate is increasing. The cost support is strong, and the sales of summer fertilizers are relatively better. During the final stage of summer fertilizers, the operating rate may gradually decline. This week, the inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand increased. The price increase accelerated the inventory removal of traders, providing support for the futures price. Overall, the export rumors have been reflected in the futures price. Without significant positive or negative news, the futures price will fluctuate based on the fundamentals, but the trend remains strong. Currently, it is in the demand window for summer fertilizers, with strong demand support. At the same time, the export policy needs to be clarified. Be cautious about market operation risks [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low, moved high, and closed slightly higher. The upstream factory mainly executed previous pending orders, with low trading activity and a slightly weaker market. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The daily production is around 200,000 tons. Pay attention to the impact of new production capacity on supply. After the export is opened, it may cause the transfer of local supply liquidity. The agricultural fertilizer preparation is cautious. The compound fertilizer factory's inventory is decreasing, and the capacity utilization rate is increasing. The cost support is strong, and the sales of summer fertilizers are relatively better. During the final stage of summer fertilizers, the operating rate may gradually decline. This week, the inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand increased. The price increase accelerated the inventory removal of traders, providing support for the futures price. Overall, the export rumors have been reflected in the futures price. Without significant positive or negative news, the futures price will fluctuate based on the fundamentals, but the trend remains strong. Currently, it is in the demand window for summer fertilizers, with strong demand support. At the same time, the export policy needs to be clarified. Be cautious about market operation risks [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1892 yuan/ton, moved higher during the day, and closed at 1892 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The trading volume was 245,094 lots (-5,374 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, the long positions increased by 91 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,330 lots. Hongyuan Futures' net long positions increased by 2,991 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increased by 4,933 lots. Yong'an Futures' net short positions increased by 2,944 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions increased by 2,188 lots [2]. - Spot: The upstream factory mainly executed previous pending orders, with low trading activity and a slightly weaker market. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are still in the range of 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton. The prices of urea factories in Shanxi have declined slightly. Some small-granule urea factories are quoted at 1,820 - 1,830 yuan/ton, and some large-granule urea factories are quoted at 1,850 - 1,870 yuan/ton, a further reduction of about 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on Shandong, the basis is the same as the previous trading day. The basis of the September contract is 28 yuan/ton (-16 yuan/ton) [9]. - Supply: On May 15, 2025, the national daily urea production was 201,400 tons, the same as yesterday [10]. - Downstream: From May 9th to May 15th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.26%, an increase of 2.36 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 74.82%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points from last week [14].