首次覆盖报告依托中国石油平台优势，天然气终端业务高质量发展可期

Investment Rating - The report gives the company an "Accumulate" rating for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company, Kunlun Energy, is positioned to benefit from the high-quality development of its natural gas terminal business, leveraging the advantages of its parent company, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [1][4]. - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% by 2024, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][46]. - The long-term growth trend in natural gas demand is expected to support the company's revenue and profit recovery, with a projected net profit of 6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Kunlun Energy is the only platform enterprise under CNPC engaged in natural gas terminal sales and comprehensive utilization, covering city gas, LNG plants, and LNG receiving stations [1][17]. - The company has a significant market presence, operating in 28 provinces and achieving a natural gas sales volume of 54.2 billion cubic meters in 2024, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [17][26]. 2. Business Development - The natural gas sales business has shown strong growth, with a CAGR of 13.7% in revenue from 2016 to 2024 and a CAGR of 15.7% in pre-tax profit [2][53]. - The company has a competitive edge in gas procurement costs, with a purchase cost of 2.437 yuan per cubic meter in 2024, lower than its peers [2][64]. - The LNG receiving stations have a combined unloading capacity of 13 million tons per year, contributing a pre-tax profit of 3.577 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of 75% [3][76]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.649 billion, 7.124 billion, and 7.598 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.77, 0.82, and 0.88 yuan per share [4][5]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue, with projected revenues of 187.046 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.46% [5][28]. 4. Market Trends - The report highlights the robust growth of natural gas consumption in China, with a projected increase in demand driven by urbanization and energy transition efforts [90][93]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for natural gas in various sectors, including residential, industrial, and transportation [100][108].