SWIREPROPERTIES(01972) 华创证券·2025-05-15 11:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Swire Properties (1972.HK) with a target price of HKD 21.55 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations, with improvements in the operation of shopping centers in mainland China. Retail sales in key locations such as Shanghai and Beijing showed positive growth, while declines in other areas were significantly reduced compared to 2024 [2][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive advantage of Swire Properties due to its prime location shopping centers and robust leasing capabilities, which are expected to drive rental income growth in the coming years [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 14,428 million, HKD 14,616 million, HKD 14,995 million, and HKD 18,638 million respectively, with growth rates of -2.1%, 1.3%, 2.6%, and 24.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -HKD 766 million in 2024, increasing to HKD 2,676 million in 2025, HKD 4,132 million in 2026, and HKD 5,671 million in 2027, with growth rates of -129.0%, 449.3%, 54.4%, and 37.2% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -HKD 0.13 in 2024, HKD 0.46 in 2025, HKD 0.72 in 2026, and HKD 0.98 in 2027 [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that Swire Properties' shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained full occupancy, with slight improvements in retail sales growth compared to the previous year [8]. - The overall rental market for office spaces in Hong Kong remains under pressure due to oversupply, with an occupancy rate of 89% in Q1 [8]. Investment Recommendation - Swire Properties is characterized as a commercial real estate company that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive moat. The expected growth in net profit and consistent dividend growth of 5% annually supports the investment thesis [8].