全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第75期）-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading enthusiasm has slightly rebounded, the CEA price has stabilized, and the CCER price has declined in compensation. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4][5] - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [6] - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market have emerged, the trading enthusiasm in the market has significantly increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas has accelerated. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan per ton. If the selling time of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height; if the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The prices of CEA23 and CEA24 remained stable. The listed volume was 28.60 tons, and the bulk volume was 30.00 tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 69.60 yuan, 70.50 yuan, 70.00 yuan, 70.96 yuan, and 70.93 yuan per ton respectively, with daily price changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.07%, and 0.20%. The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 31.27, and 27.33 tons respectively [4][9] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.23 tons, the average trading price was 86.98 yuan per ton (-3.36%), the trading amount was 20.01 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 175.34 tons [4][11] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [5] Core Logic - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [6] - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market have emerged, the trading enthusiasm in the market has significantly increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas has accelerated. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan per ton. If the selling time of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height; if the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [7]