创元期货日报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. In contrast, the domestic A-share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1海外隔夜 - The US government stated that it is "close to reaching" a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India, and also indicated that it does not seek a weaker US dollar in tariff negotiations. Overnight, the US dollar index rose after a decline, ending slightly higher. Both short - and long - term US Treasury yields increased, gold prices fell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined among the three major US stock indexes, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Although market risk aversion improved, future uncertainties still restricted market risk appetite [2][5] 3.1.2国内行情回顾 - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.86%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The market showed a rebound trend. In the morning session, the market was in a stalemate, and in the afternoon, the index rebounded rapidly led by the large financial sector. However, the market had a significant 2 - 8 divergence, with more stocks declining than rising. In terms of sectors, non - bank finance, transportation, food and beverage, and commerce and retail led the gains, while military industry, beauty care, machinery and equipment, and social services led the losses. There were 2327 rising stocks and 2816 falling stocks in the entire market. Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies to accelerate the construction of a science - finance system and established the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" [2][6] 3.1.3重要资讯 - Trade tariff news: The US is close to reaching a trade tariff agreement with Japan, South Korea, and India; the US does not seek a weaker dollar in tariff negotiations; the EU plans to impose higher tariffs on Ukrainian imports; Trump has rewritten trade rules over 50 times in 100 days. - Russia - Ukraine talks: Putin determined the Russian delegation list for the Russia - Ukraine negotiations; Rubio and Zelensky headed to Turkey; Putin has no intention of having a one - on - one meeting with Zelensky; the EU agreed to impose the 17th round of sanctions on Russia. - Central bank data: From January to April, the increment of social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, and new loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year. - Other news: The second meeting of the China - EU Financial Working Group was held in Brussels; seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued policies on science - finance; the international road transport route from China to Hanoi, Vietnam was officially opened; the US adjusted tariffs on China; the Ministry of Commerce responded to questions about suspending 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list and export control list [7][8][9][10][11][12] 3.1.4今日策略 - Overnight, the overseas market's risk aversion declined, but risk appetite remained constrained, and the rebound of US stocks showed signs of slowing. The domestic A - share market rebounded led by the large financial sector, yet more stocks declined than rose. With support at the bottom and a lack of strong fundamental support at the top, it is highly likely that funds will rotate into the large financial sector during the dividend - intensive period. When there is no leading sector in the market, chasing the rise is not advisable. Today, attention should be paid to the activity of individual stocks and sector rotation during the index fluctuations. Currently, the strategy should maintain a balanced style [3][13] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - The report presents detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest [15][16] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - The report shows the performance of the spot market, including the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuation data of major indexes such as the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index. It also analyzes the impact of market styles on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presents the valuation data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes [40][41][42] 3.4流动性跟踪 - The report includes charts on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels, which are used to track market liquidity [58]