中国保健食品：老龄化护航行业成长，赛道长坡厚雪闻宏伟

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the health food industry, emphasizing its growth potential driven by an aging population and regulatory changes [3][11]. Core Insights - The aging population in China is a significant driver for the health food industry, with the market expected to grow substantially as the demographic shifts [1][3]. - The health food market in China is currently valued at over 350 billion yuan, with a high single-digit growth rate, which is expected to accelerate due to increasing demand for chronic disease management [3][9]. - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top 10 companies holding less than 40% market share, indicating significant room for consolidation and growth [3][10]. Summary by Sections Long-term Outlook - The health food market is projected to achieve double-digit growth as the penetration rate increases from approximately 20% in China towards the 50% level seen in the U.S. [3][9]. - The potential user base is expanding, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above expected by the end of 2024, which will drive demand for health food products [3][9]. Short-term Performance - The health food sector is currently facing pressure, with major listed companies reporting a revenue decline of 3.9% year-on-year for 2024 and a further decline of 11% in Q1 2025 [4][10]. - Despite the overall decline, certain companies like H&H International Holdings and Jindawei are showing resilience and growth, indicating differentiation within the sector [4][10]. Regulatory and Market Opportunities - Regulatory changes are expected to benefit the industry, with the expansion of the health food registration system and the introduction of functional foods, which will enhance product offerings and reduce time to market [11]. - There are opportunities for Chinese health food companies to expand internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia, where traditional Chinese medicine concepts are well-received [11].