Shanxi Securities·2025-05-15 11:05Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Leading the Market" with an expectation of exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [3][39]. Core Insights - The domestic market for home appliances is showing optimism, particularly in air conditioning production, while export markets face challenges due to tariff uncertainties [3][5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for air conditioning production in the upcoming months, driven by seasonal demand and government incentives for replacing old appliances [10][34]. - The report notes a decline in export growth for home appliances in April, attributed to intense competition and fluctuating tariff policies, although emerging markets are providing some relief [20][34]. - Raw material costs are decreasing, which is expected to enhance profitability for the industry, with stable prices for copper, rebar, and ethylene [26][34]. - Shipping costs are currently low, which benefits export-oriented home appliance companies, although there may be fluctuations due to potential "export rush" phenomena [30][34]. Summary by Sections 1. White Goods Production - Air conditioning production is optimistic with expected increases of 9.9%, 14.1%, and 14.3% from May to July 2025, while refrigerator and washing machine production remains stable [10][13]. - Domestic refrigerator production is gradually improving, while export production remains pessimistic due to tariff impacts [13][16]. - Washing machine production is in a seasonal downturn domestically, but export impacts from tariffs are minimal [16][34]. 2. Home Appliance Exports - In April 2025, home appliance exports fell by 2.89% year-on-year, with a total export value of $8.65 billion [20][34]. - The volume of exports increased by 1.2%, indicating a mixed performance influenced by competitive pricing and tariff fluctuations [20][34]. 3. Raw Materials - The report indicates that raw material costs are at low levels, with copper priced at $9,649.5 per ton, rebar at 3,118 yuan per ton, and ethylene at $781 per ton, which helps reduce cost pressures [26][34]. 4. Shipping Costs - Current shipping costs are low, which is advantageous for home appliance exporters, although potential fluctuations may arise from increased export activities [30][34]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1. Configuration type focusing on white goods with stable performance and high dividends, including companies like Midea Group and Gree Electric [5][34]. 2. Turning point type targeting small appliances and kitchen appliances expected to recover [5][34]. 3. Growth potential in black goods with technological upgrades and competitive advantages for domestic brands [5][34]. 4. Thematic investments in the humanoid robot supply chain, which may benefit component manufacturers [5][34].