华金期货螺纹周报-20250515

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of black commodities rebounded from low levels, and the market repaired its pessimistic expectations. However, demand is entering the off - season, so the possibility of a continuous rebound is not strong. It is expected that prices still have room to fall. Given the changing market environment, it is advisable to short螺纹 at high prices. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Supply - Mysteel's production this week increased by 30,000 tons to 2265,300 tons, with electric furnace production increasing by 10,900 tons and blast furnace production increasing by 19,100 tons. The SAC旬 - degree data shows that steel production is at a high level. Steel mill profits are considerable, and production is expected to remain at the current level. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in steel mill production and profits. [3][10] 3.2 Thread Demand - Apparent demand rebounded slightly this week but overall performance was weak. It is expected that demand will be under pressure in the third quarter, especially as it enters the off - season after the holiday. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker has rebounded to a relatively high level, indicating some support from the infrastructure sector. [3][15] 3.3 Thread Steel Inventory - The total inventory of thread steel decreased slightly this week. The total inventory of thread steel decreased by 337,600 tons, with the steel mill inventory increasing by 32,800 tons and the social inventory decreasing by 304,800 tons. The SAC旬 - degree data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level. Attention should be paid to the balance between production and demand. [3][23] 3.4 Thread Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2910 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is 2900 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 2980 yuan/ton for common billets on May 14th, the average profit per ton of steel mills is 78 yuan. [27] 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The spot price has increased. The price of Shanghai Zhongtian has increased by 40 yuan to 3240 yuan, and the price of Tangshan Qian'an steel billets has increased by 50 yuan to 2980 yuan. Futures prices have rebounded from low levels, and the basis has gradually converged. [29] 3.6 Futures Spread and Related Product Price Ratios - Iron ore remains strong, and the ratio of the main thread to iron ore contracts has weakened slightly. The real - world demand for finished products is weak, and it is expected that ferrous metals will not have stronger performance. [34] 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to March, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 9.9% and 24.4% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - February, and the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 5.1 percentage points. [38]