国投期货化工日报-20250515

Report Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Short - fiber: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Methanol: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Glass: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Soda ash: None, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows different trends. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, policy factors, and cost fluctuations. Overall, the market is complex, with some products in a weak or volatile state, while others may have short - term upward trends [2][3][7] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures price fell slightly. Domestic device capacity utilization is high, many olefin devices are under maintenance, traditional downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises are destocking. Import volume is decreasing, and port inventory is significantly reduced. The market is expected to be weak and volatile due to increased supply and decreased demand [2] Urea - The urea futures price is oscillating, and the spot price is stable with a slight decline. The market's bullish sentiment has weakened after the self - regulatory export meeting. Production enterprises have significantly reduced inventory, and ports are accumulating inventory. Industrial and agricultural demand has limited impact on the market, and the market is expected to operate within a range under the influence of price - stabilizing policies [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures prices fluctuate narrowly. After a sharp rise, there is a need for technical adjustment. The market hype sentiment for polyethylene remains, and the prices of petrochemical and traders are rising. The willingness of downstream factories to accept high prices has weakened, and middlemen are waiting and watching [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price is consolidating narrowly. The planned shutdown of a cracking unit and early maintenance of styrene devices support the price, but the cost support is weakening after the decline of crude oil and pure benzene prices. The market direction is to be determined after filling the price gap [6] Polyester - Affected by the adjustment of oil prices, PX and PTA prices have fallen. The polyester industry's operating rate is rising, and downstream demand has improved. However, the cash flow of polyester filament enterprises is poor, and there are potential risks. The price of ethylene glycol has fallen, and the future supply is expected to be under pressure. The price of short - fiber has adjusted slightly, and the processing margin is still low. The production of bottle - grade polyester chips is increasing, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC spot prices continue to rise, and futures prices are strong. Tariff policy easing may improve exports, and supply pressure is relieved due to increased maintenance. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Caustic soda is oscillating strongly. Supply pressure in Shandong is relieved, and downstream demand is average. The profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has recovered, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices are weak due to inventory accumulation and price reduction in the spot market. Inventory pressure is high, and downstream demand is still weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with costs. Soda ash supply has decreased after maintenance, but the industry is still slightly accumulating inventory. The futures price is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term. In the long term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [9]