黑色金属日报-20250515

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of the steel, iron ore, and other futures markets is supported by factors such as the marginal improvement of weekly data and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, but the pessimistic demand expectations limit the upside space. For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market fluctuated narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly, production was relatively stable, and inventory resumed a downward trend. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, production declined, and inventory resumed a downward trend. Iron ore production is at a high level, and the supply pressure is still large. As the off - season of demand approaches, the terminal's carrying capacity needs to be observed. Domestic demand in downstream industries is still weak, manufacturing prosperity has declined, and real estate sales recovery is fluctuating [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market fluctuated. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore fluctuated normally, with no obvious increase for the time being. The domestic arrival volume decreased, and the national port inventory decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand rebounded, but there is still seasonal weakening pressure in the future. With a high profit rate of steel mills, iron ore production can still maintain a high level for the time being. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the decline of iron ore production in the medium term [2] Coke - The price of coke fluctuated weakly. It is expected to be reduced in price this Thursday, and daily production has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and traders have no purchasing enthusiasm. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Steel billet export orders are good. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal fluctuated weakly. Production has gradually climbed to a relatively high level this year. The activity of the spot auction market is low, the transaction price has loosened slightly, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory of coking coal is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese fluctuated narrowly. The national manganese ore port inventory has been continuously rising, with a cumulative increase of more than 300,000 tons last week. It is estimated that about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level, the supply of silicomanganese continues to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, which continues to suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [6] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Export demand generally shows a downward trend month - on - month, but the marginal impact is small. The production of magnesium metal is basically flat and remains stable at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has rebounded slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continuously increased. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [7]