Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in key cities has shown signs of recovery due to a series of policy optimizations introduced in 2024, leading to increased market activity in the fourth quarter of 2024. The report anticipates that these policies will continue to take effect in 2025, resulting in a gradual stabilization of the market in high-capacity cities [4][85] - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: 1) Strong leading real estate companies with comprehensive development capabilities and a good reputation, actively participating in urban renewal and village reconstruction [4][85] 2) Commercial public REITs with diverse business models and strong operational brands [4][85] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In the first four months of 2025, the average transaction price of new homes in the core 30 cities increased by 5% year-on-year, with a total transaction area of 4,376 million square meters, reflecting a 2.3% increase year-on-year [1][17] - The average transaction price for new homes in key cities was as follows: Beijing at 60,061 CNY/sqm (+21.2%), Shanghai at 77,681 CNY/sqm (-2.8%), Guangzhou at 32,623 CNY/sqm (-11.8%), and Shenzhen at 60,537 CNY/sqm (-2.0%) [2][37] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area of second-hand homes in the core 15 cities increased by 21% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, with the average price in 10 cities rising by 2% [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in key cities was: Beijing at 28,927 CNY/sqm (+3.5%), Shanghai at 39,193 CNY/sqm (+2.6%), Guangzhou at 27,170 CNY/sqm (-7.4%), and Shenzhen at 57,887 CNY/sqm (-2.0%) [80] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and suggests that the market will see further differentiation among regions and cities in 2025 [4][85] - Recommended companies include China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others that are actively involved in urban renewal and have a strong market presence [4][85]
光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪(2025年4月)
EBSCN·2025-05-15 12:36