短线上股指存冲高回落的可能性

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock indexes oscillated and corrected today. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1190.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 159.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The April social financing and credit data were mixed, with significant government bond issuance, but the financing demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The stock indexes have insufficient momentum for continuous upward movement, and there is a possibility of a short - term pullback after reaching a high and repeated oscillations [3]. - In the second quarter, the external tariff war conflict has eased. The recent "order - grabbing" in Sino - US trade is expected to improve external demand to some extent. The continuous efforts of internal policies can also provide good support. Currently, the corporate profit differentiation among industries is obvious. The acceleration of the public fund new regulations promotes the aggregation of funds to large - cap weighted stocks. It is expected that the performance of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 will be stronger than that of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [3]. - Generally speaking, the domestic policy is clear in supporting the economy and stabilizing the stock market. Coupled with the easing of external risk factors, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. It is expected that the stock indexes will oscillate and strengthen in the short term. Currently, the implied volatility of options is within the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indexes, a bull spread portfolio can be used to layout the medium - and long - term upward market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On May 15, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.50% to 2.803; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.84% to 4.011; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.86% to 4.047; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.91% to 3907.20; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.68% to 6057.04; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.33% to 5.721; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.30% to 2.286; the GEM ETF fell 2.04% to 2.012; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.36% to 2.688; the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.49% to 2740.30; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 1.41% to 1.05; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 1.45% to 1.02 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of the Shanghai 50ETF option was 83.83 (73.37 the previous day), and the position PCR was 119.37 (129.62 the previous day) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai 50ETF option in May 2025 was 13.98%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 19.67% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Shanghai 50ETF Option: Charts include the Shanghai 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [9][11][13][17]. - Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Option: Charts cover the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [20]. - Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Option: Charts involve the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [23]. - CSI 300 Index Option: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [37]. - CSI 1000 Index Option: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [50]. - Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Option: Charts involve the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [62]. - Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Option: Charts include the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [74]. - GEM ETF Option: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [88]. - Shenzhen 100ETF Option: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [97]. - Shanghai 50 Index Option: Charts include the Shanghai 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [110]. - Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option: Charts cover the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [124]. - E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Option: Charts involve the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of each tenure [127].