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镍、不锈钢日报:短期多空交织,关注宏观情绪带动-20250515
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-05-15 12:52

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market trend of nickel and stainless steel is mixed. There is still negative feedback in the ferronickel link on the fundamental side, and the support from the new - energy link has loosened. Although the Sino - US trade tariff agreement has eased concerns about the demand digestion of terminal products, its impact on nickel and stainless - steel varieties is limited, and attention should be paid to the subsequent reaction of the varieties to market sentiment [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the Sino - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of the new Indonesian resource tax on April 26th leading to an overall increase in cost, and the lower - than - expected US CPI data increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. Negative factors include the gradual increase in ore supply at the end of the Philippine rainy season, the weakening support of the MHP nickel sulfate link, the continuous negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry with the cost support at the ferronickel end moving down, and the high inventory of stainless steel with no obvious improvement in demand [4]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1. Price Forecast and Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 32.75% and the historical percentile of the current volatility at 66.9% [2]. - Inventory Management Strategy: When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline. The recommended hedging tool is the Shanghai nickel main contract with a selling hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2. Another option is to sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [2]. - Procurement Management Strategy: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance. The recommended hedging tools include buying far - month Shanghai nickel contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options. The hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan, and the strategy level is 3 [2]. 3.2. Market Data - Nickel Market Data: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 123,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,630 yuan (- 1%); the trading volume is 137,729 lots, an increase of 1,166 lots (0.85%); the open interest is 63,702 lots, an increase of 625 lots (0.99%); the warehouse receipt quantity is 23,344 tons, a decrease of 205 tons (- 0.87%); the basis of the main contract is - 1,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan (- 7.0%) [6]. - Stainless - Steel Market Data: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan (- 1%); the trading volume is 128,580 lots, a decrease of 14,329 lots (- 10.03%); the open interest is 127,690 lots, a decrease of 4,068 lots (- 3.09%); the warehouse receipt quantity is 158,715 tons, a decrease of 94 tons (- 0.06%); the basis of the main contract is 590 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan (20.41%) [7]. 3.3. Inventory Data - Nickel Industry Inventory: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,088 tons, a decrease of 13 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 199,146 tons, an increase of 714 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 989.1 tons, an increase of 13.7 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 28,396.5 tons, an increase of 4,223 tons [8].