银河期货花生日报-20250515

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2][3] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Researcher's Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [2] - Researcher's Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short - term due to stable oil mill purchase prices, high peanut production in 2024, and weak downstream demand [5][10]. - The peanut oil market is relatively strong, while peanut meal has been stable recently, and oil mills are theoretically profitable [10]. - PK510 (10 peanut) is trading new crops, with many uncertainties such as weather [10]. Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PK504 | 8124 | -12 | -0.15% | 7 | -50.00% | 41 | -6.82% | | PK510 | 8226 | -10 | -0.12% | 32,813 | -23.92% | 93,491 | 0.81% | | PK601 | 8134 | 6 | 0.07% | 363 | 46.96% | 2,777 | 0.11% | [3] Spot Market - Peanut Spot: Henan Nanyang 8200 yuan/ton, Shandong Jining 8000 yuan/ton, Shandong Linyi 8000 yuan/ton, Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 general goods 4.15 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu 4.1 yuan/jin, Henan Baisha general goods 4.05 - 4.25 yuan/jin, Shandong Junan 4.0 yuan/jin, imported Sudan refined rice 7950 yuan/ton [3][5] - By - products: Rizhao peanut meal 3300 yuan/ton, Rizhao soybean meal 2920 yuan/ton, peanut oil 15000 yuan/ton, Rizhao first - grade soybean oil 8060 yuan/ton [3] Price Difference - Peanut Inter - period Spread: PK01 - PK04 spread is 10 with a change of 18; PK04 - PK10 spread is - 102 with a change of - 2; PK10 - PK01 spread is 92 with a change of - 16 [3] Group 5: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China are stable, and it is expected that peanut spot prices will be relatively stable in the short - term [5] - Peanut oil mill purchase prices are stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8110 yuan/ton. Peanut oil prices are stable, and soybean oil prices have risen [5] - Rizhao soybean meal spot prices are stable, and the unit protein price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal is high, with peanut meal being weak in the short - term [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on 10 peanut at low prices with a volatile trading idea [11] - Inter - period Spread: Do positive spreads on peanut 10 - 1 at low prices [12] - Options: Sell pk510 - p - 7800 [13] Group 7: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong peanut spot price (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut oil mill crushing profit (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut oil price (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Peanut spot and continuous contract basis (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Peanut 10 - 1 contract spread (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Peanut 3 - 10 contract spread (unit: yuan/ton) [15][19][23]